1/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
NICE
nice sub $170 looks e-z buy
- DD top line growth (meh, but "good")
- 70% GM, 35% EBITDA mgn, *nice*
- pretty near 100% FCF conversion (NI->FCF) and FCF yield about 8% on a ~10 bn EV
- healthy balance sheet, net cash by ~1 billy
- at 14x next yr PE (closer to 12x cash adjusted) for DD EPS growth, your mgn of safety is pretty good here
- not the most liquid name, so tough to buy calls until we see an obvious catalyst. but i'm building exposure here w/ some good cash balance (and i've monetized a bit of
UBER and 
NVDA and 
NXT which were massive positions of mine into YE and the first two days printed).
- would like to do more work, but it's not my first time looking at the name, think it's better than cash but want to identify catalyst and "where" they stand in terms of AI offer
V
NICEnice sub $170 looks e-z buy
- DD top line growth (meh, but "good")
- 70% GM, 35% EBITDA mgn, *nice*
- pretty near 100% FCF conversion (NI->FCF) and FCF yield about 8% on a ~10 bn EV
- healthy balance sheet, net cash by ~1 billy
- at 14x next yr PE (closer to 12x cash adjusted) for DD EPS growth, your mgn of safety is pretty good here
- not the most liquid name, so tough to buy calls until we see an obvious catalyst. but i'm building exposure here w/ some good cash balance (and i've monetized a bit of
UBER and NVDA and NXT which were massive positions of mine into YE and the first two days printed). - would like to do more work, but it's not my first time looking at the name, think it's better than cash but want to identify catalyst and "where" they stand in terms of AI offer
V
Trade active
as much as i'm looking to simplify my book into the 4-5 names i like... you know which ones if you have spent more than a day tapped into my updates... i can't help but swing here pre market w/ the stock off about 14% in the low $150s.- generate cash -> consistent buybacks. i'd expect them to use the 1.6 bn stack (only 450 mm debt) to do more of this in the coming days (i think there's a 2-ish day blackout which takes us to next week if the stock sells off further)
- ex-cash, the PE of this thing is like 12x at these levels, which is slightly above 1x PEG for a name that has a sticky user base and is pushing AI tools (i thought that was a good thing lol)
- honestly scott (new CEO from SAP) is "fine". i don't know him well enough, will listen to the call at 8.30 AM ET... and for the little i've heard him speak, well, he's no dan shugar (most aren't), so this is more a valuation call on his stock and seeing the company consistently chug along, beat, generate cash etc. than one on vision. i'd like to be surprised here, but perhaps i'm just in it for a swing, for now.
- if we would get a wick down on a market-related beta dump... this becomes one of those names high on the list that i'd guess probably gets bid pretty quickly just b/c of the buyback dynamic and i genuinely think it's in deep value zone, already, after these pretty decent results and mediocre, but not abysmal guide.
stay solvent. stay sane. have a good day my friends
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.