Disclaimer- Please take this as an educational content, trade with professional financial advice and discretion
The US Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance has sent waves of optimism across global stock markets, including India, as it signaled two interest rate cuts in 2025 while slowing its balance sheet reduction. As of today we can observe a strong break out in Nifty 50 index due to positive global cues and this indicates a long trade on the index future. But this may a trap due to lot of reasons.
GDP growth has been cut from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, core inflation is set to rise from 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent, and unemployment is projected to inch up.
Inflation concerns rise in with tariff wars and a similar situation can be experienced as the hyperbolic rise in inflation of 2021 as current inflation is above fed targets and could go out of bounds due to faster rate cuts.
I believe the US government(Donald Trump) doesn't wants high tariffs but is prone to act out harshly to protect his image and thus ended up starting a global trade war.
On warfront there is no actual progress towards a ceasefire and more talks on the diplomatic end, which may not give the fuel to markets for a rally.
Technically there is heavy resistance built by option writing and shorts at 23500 level which may be harder for the market to break in the short term.
I would be adding shorts on price action at resistance and won't be carrying any overnight positions.
The US Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance has sent waves of optimism across global stock markets, including India, as it signaled two interest rate cuts in 2025 while slowing its balance sheet reduction. As of today we can observe a strong break out in Nifty 50 index due to positive global cues and this indicates a long trade on the index future. But this may a trap due to lot of reasons.
GDP growth has been cut from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, core inflation is set to rise from 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent, and unemployment is projected to inch up.
Inflation concerns rise in with tariff wars and a similar situation can be experienced as the hyperbolic rise in inflation of 2021 as current inflation is above fed targets and could go out of bounds due to faster rate cuts.
I believe the US government(Donald Trump) doesn't wants high tariffs but is prone to act out harshly to protect his image and thus ended up starting a global trade war.
On warfront there is no actual progress towards a ceasefire and more talks on the diplomatic end, which may not give the fuel to markets for a rally.
Technically there is heavy resistance built by option writing and shorts at 23500 level which may be harder for the market to break in the short term.
I would be adding shorts on price action at resistance and won't be carrying any overnight positions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.