NIFTY weekly view May 4 -8
Updated
Lets start with my monthly view : I have posted this on March 27, 2020
I had mentioned the following things
1. The bounce of April is likely to fail.
2. Bearish view is challenged above level 9400-9500.
When I review the situation again, I have the following view for May 2020
1. The bounce is likely to fail.
2. Bearish view is challenged but the rise above 9500 Zone happened near and over Monthly expiry. Monthly expiry has many market dynamics at play.Hence we need confirmation of this by sustaining above 9400 - 9500 for first week of many without any sharp down move.
3. The market is very much news driven and market players are less likely to pump in large investments at this point. So we may not see stability above 9500.
Now trend for the coming week:
1. Daily trend is up and weekly trend is up.
2. The trend line is broken, but need confirmation.
3. We have entered zone of uncertainty. zone between 9500 - 10000.
Some ideas and trading bias for the coming week
1. All candles, daily, weekly and monthly look stretched. Hence we need to be careful.
2. Even though market rose heavily on Thursday, the indicator of fear and uncertainty, VIX did not show commensurate fall. Hence this bounce may retrace.
3. If I see spike again, I'll mostly do intra-day and 1-2 days holding period for my positions. I'll also mostly to OTM CALLs and PUTs for trading.
4. No Long positions with more than 1 day holding period as Monthly trend is down and weekly trend looks stretched.
I had mentioned the following things
1. The bounce of April is likely to fail.
2. Bearish view is challenged above level 9400-9500.
When I review the situation again, I have the following view for May 2020
1. The bounce is likely to fail.
2. Bearish view is challenged but the rise above 9500 Zone happened near and over Monthly expiry. Monthly expiry has many market dynamics at play.Hence we need confirmation of this by sustaining above 9400 - 9500 for first week of many without any sharp down move.
3. The market is very much news driven and market players are less likely to pump in large investments at this point. So we may not see stability above 9500.
Now trend for the coming week:
1. Daily trend is up and weekly trend is up.
2. The trend line is broken, but need confirmation.
3. We have entered zone of uncertainty. zone between 9500 - 10000.
Some ideas and trading bias for the coming week
1. All candles, daily, weekly and monthly look stretched. Hence we need to be careful.
2. Even though market rose heavily on Thursday, the indicator of fear and uncertainty, VIX did not show commensurate fall. Hence this bounce may retrace.
3. If I see spike again, I'll mostly do intra-day and 1-2 days holding period for my positions. I'll also mostly to OTM CALLs and PUTs for trading.
4. No Long positions with more than 1 day holding period as Monthly trend is down and weekly trend looks stretched.
Trade active
large candle down breaking rising wedge and making earlier breakout as false breakout
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