NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a congestion and consolidation between 18650 and 18760 for most of the days and finally broke the barrier and close higher. The Index did make an attempt closer to the previous high. A close above 18720-740 zone is considered as positive as the next target for the move is pushed to 18970 and then 19170.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

The index moved in a range of 305 points viz. between 18559 and 18864
The oscillators of different time frames are showing marginally positive signals
Option open interest to drive the direction of the market

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

The Index has taken sufficient time to consolidate between 18600 &18750 before breaking out which is considered a good sign
The index has made yet another base at 18600-650 after 8450-470 range
Index may find supports at 18740,18670, 14540 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 18930, 19030, 19170

Additional interesting observations

As observed in the previous blog index has cleared the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), and 18251(Jan 23 High),18350(Jan 22 High)
The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a weekly close below 18570
The observations of the previous Blogs repeated for quick reference with fine tuning: The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18650-800 with hurdles on every 200 points starting 18180
On weekly charts the Index has formed an irregular Inv H&S with about 850-900 points from the neckline which targets around 18900

Final Note

The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17900
Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 19160 and support at 18520 with a Pivot at 18840
A word of caution
Index has made higher highs and lower lows
A new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks and possibly towards posting an ATH.
As noted in our previous blog, the Index saw choppy moves till FED, and broke higher on the last day of the week.
Expected to remain in the range of 17650-19060 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
A daily close below 18570 would see the Index drift towards 18430

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.

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