Nifty Index View [Expiry: 08-08-2024]
Updated
After a notable expiry week characterized by significant activity, the current Nifty expiry week commenced under less favorable conditions. This analysis explores the Nifty Index from both the expiry candle and options technical perspective to provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics.
Expiry Candle Analysis:
This week's expiry candle started at the pivot point but closed below it, suggesting an initial bearish momentum. If the downtrend continue, the next support could be expected around 24,575, which aligns with S1 of the expiry pivot. Further decline might test the S2 at 24,415 - a pivotal level as it also corresponds to last week's expiry low. In terms of resistance, Pivot, TC (Top Central), and BC (Bottom Central) could serve as key barriers in the short term. The analysis leverages Fibonacci pivot calculations based on the expiry OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data.
Historically, a relatively quiet week often follows a highly active expiry week. Given this pattern, the current week might lean towards a neutral or slightly negative close, echoing the subdued sentiment post-high volatility periods.
Options Analysis:
Instead of focusing on volume or open interest, this review emphasizes a technical assessment of the options chain. Technical ratings added to the monthly expiry options reveal that:
Near Term Options Outlook(Current Expiry):
Conclusion:
Both the expiry candle and technical indicators from the options chain suggest a market leaning towards a neutral to negative closure for the current expiry period. Traders should consider integrating additional data and analyses to corroborate these findings and refine their market strategies.
Expiry Candle Analysis:
This week's expiry candle started at the pivot point but closed below it, suggesting an initial bearish momentum. If the downtrend continue, the next support could be expected around 24,575, which aligns with S1 of the expiry pivot. Further decline might test the S2 at 24,415 - a pivotal level as it also corresponds to last week's expiry low. In terms of resistance, Pivot, TC (Top Central), and BC (Bottom Central) could serve as key barriers in the short term. The analysis leverages Fibonacci pivot calculations based on the expiry OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data.
Historically, a relatively quiet week often follows a highly active expiry week. Given this pattern, the current week might lean towards a neutral or slightly negative close, echoing the subdued sentiment post-high volatility periods.
Options Analysis:
Instead of focusing on volume or open interest, this review emphasizes a technical assessment of the options chain. Technical ratings added to the monthly expiry options reveal that:
- Call Options: Moving Averages are indicating a strong sell signal, with Oscillators showing a mix of neutral and sell signals, suggesting bearish expectations.
- Put Options: Moving Averages are mostly neutral while Oscillators are leaning towards buy signals, indicating some expectation of upward price movements yet underscored by caution.
Near Term Options Outlook(Current Expiry):
- Call Side: Signals are overwhelmingly negative, pointing towards bearish market expectations.
- Put Side: Presents mixed signals, which could imply uncertainty or a potential for slight recovery, but the overall sentiment remains cautiously pessimistic.
Conclusion:
Both the expiry candle and technical indicators from the options chain suggest a market leaning towards a neutral to negative closure for the current expiry period. Traders should consider integrating additional data and analyses to corroborate these findings and refine their market strategies.
Note
Nifty found support at the S4 level of the expiry pivot. What next? 
Note
The expiry candle closed long and red but found support at the Fibonacci pivot S4. I'll keep an eye on tomorrow's open to assess the direction for the next expiry. 
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