If you're hunting for volatility, look no further than Newsmax. The stock hit the public markets at $10 a pop on March 31, and in true meme stock fashion, it went ballistic closing the day up 735%. Now, you’d expect a pullback, a little gravity check. But nope. By midday April 1, the stock had stacked another 70%, pushing its 48 hour gain to a jaw dropping 2,650%
That kind of move? That’s the dream of every growth investor. Except here’s the catch those numbers rarely belong to anything fundamentally sound. Peel back the layers, and yes, revenue is climbing. But at a $17.18 billion market cap, this valuation is running on pure hopium. No conceivable growth trajectory justifies this price tag anytime soon.
Newsmax positions itself as a conservative media powerhouse, running a mix of television broadcasting and multi platform content publishing. The heart of its business? The Broadcasting segment, which licenses news, business, and lifestyle content to MVPDs the cable and satellite giants like Comcast (CMCSA), Charter (CHTR), and Altice USA (ATUS)
The revenue model is a hybrid play part licensing, part advertising. On one side, MVPDs pay per subscriber fees to carry Newsmax channels. On the other, advertising dollars roll in. The firm is also pushing deeper into streaming with Newsmax+, launched in 2023, racking up 280,000 paying subscribers at $50 a year. A decent start, sure, but nowhere near the numbers to justify that inflated valuation.
Big Ambitions, Bigger Problems
Newsmax isn’t just a broadcaster it’s also got a digital arm, fittingly called the Digital segment. This side of the business covers its network of websites (pulling in over 5 million unique visitors per month), 5 million+ email subscribers, 7 million SMS alert subscribers, and 16 million social media followers (Facebook leads the pack with 4.9 million). There’s also Newsmax Magazine with 330,000 monthly readers and the Newsmax app, downloaded 11 million+ times
Numbers Never Lies
The company's financials over the last three years (2022–2024) tell a tale of two businesses. Total revenue surged from $135M to $171M, almost entirely thanks to Broadcasting, which exploded from $86.5M to $131M
Advertising revenue in this segment grew modestly ($86.5M → $89.5M).
Subscription revenue went from $0 to $12.5M, driven by the Newsmax+ launch in late 2023, contributing $11.5M.
Affiliate revenue (MVPD licensing fees) skyrocketed from $0 to $26.7M after major contracts kicked in around November 2023
Meanwhile, the Digital segment is slipping. Revenue shrank from $48.8M to $40.3M, driven by a subscriber decline (subscription revenue: $19.1M → $14.5M) and a drop in product sales (mostly e-commerce nutraceuticals, falling from $9.6M to $6M). Why? Lower marketing spend, fewer new customers, less engagement
The Cash Burn Is Real
Growth is great, but profitability? That’s a different story. Net losses ballooned from $19.9M to $72.7M in just three years. Operating cash flow? Cratered from -$7.3M to -$48.7M. Adjust for working capital, and it’s even worse: -14.4M to -$53.1M.** The one bright spot? EBITDA flipped from -$14.6M to $10.2M
Newsmax vs The Big Dogs
Newsmax claims to be the 4 cable news player and a top7 basic cable network (per Nielsen). Its content reaches 57M homes and pulled in 29M viewers in Q4 2024, with a solid chunk of its audience (7.2M) avoiding Fox News altogether. That’s impressive. But does that justify a $17B+ valuation?
Hard no. Growth is one thing, sustainable, profitable growth is another. Right now, Newsmax is spending like it’s already won the media wars but the financials say otherwise.
Lofty Valuation, Serious Risks
Newsmax has been a work in progress since day one. Newsmax 1.0 (1998–2014) was purely digital. Newsmax 2.0 (2014–2022) pushed into cable news and expanded into publishing with the Humanix acquisition. Newsmax 3.0 (2022–present) is all about securing cable licensing deals, launching streaming, paid subscriptions, radio, and podcasting a logical evolution for a media brand trying to maximize monetization and audience stickiness
That’s all well and good. The problem? The stock is wildly overpriced
The Valuation Gap Is Staggering
Let’s cut through the noise. Based on standard valuation metrics Price2Revenue, EV2Revenue, and EV2EBITDA Newsmax trades at multiples far beyond its peer group. Even in the most generous scenario, the company would need to hit $6.01 billion in revenue and $1.11 billion in adjusted operating cash flow just to be reasonably valued. Reality check: 2023 revenue was just $171 million
A Ticking Time Bomb
Yes, Newsmax has $304M in net cash, even after setting aside $54.6M for settlements including
40M (plus $10M in warrants) to Smartmatic for election related disinformation. But here’s the bigger issue:
Dominion Voting Systems sued Newsmax for $1.6 billion over similar claims, with punitive damages on the table
Fox News settled for $787.5M in a nearly identical case
Newsmax’s trial starts this month, and a major judgment could cripple its financial position
Overhyped & Overvalued
Newsmax has a growth story, sure. But the valuation makes zero sense, the financials can’t justify the stock price, and the litigation risk is massive. Even in a best case scenario, this stock is set for a brutal reality check.
If you got gains, take profit and throw a party. Don’t forget to invite me!
That kind of move? That’s the dream of every growth investor. Except here’s the catch those numbers rarely belong to anything fundamentally sound. Peel back the layers, and yes, revenue is climbing. But at a $17.18 billion market cap, this valuation is running on pure hopium. No conceivable growth trajectory justifies this price tag anytime soon.
Newsmax positions itself as a conservative media powerhouse, running a mix of television broadcasting and multi platform content publishing. The heart of its business? The Broadcasting segment, which licenses news, business, and lifestyle content to MVPDs the cable and satellite giants like Comcast (CMCSA), Charter (CHTR), and Altice USA (ATUS)
The revenue model is a hybrid play part licensing, part advertising. On one side, MVPDs pay per subscriber fees to carry Newsmax channels. On the other, advertising dollars roll in. The firm is also pushing deeper into streaming with Newsmax+, launched in 2023, racking up 280,000 paying subscribers at $50 a year. A decent start, sure, but nowhere near the numbers to justify that inflated valuation.
Big Ambitions, Bigger Problems
Newsmax isn’t just a broadcaster it’s also got a digital arm, fittingly called the Digital segment. This side of the business covers its network of websites (pulling in over 5 million unique visitors per month), 5 million+ email subscribers, 7 million SMS alert subscribers, and 16 million social media followers (Facebook leads the pack with 4.9 million). There’s also Newsmax Magazine with 330,000 monthly readers and the Newsmax app, downloaded 11 million+ times
Numbers Never Lies
The company's financials over the last three years (2022–2024) tell a tale of two businesses. Total revenue surged from $135M to $171M, almost entirely thanks to Broadcasting, which exploded from $86.5M to $131M
Advertising revenue in this segment grew modestly ($86.5M → $89.5M).
Subscription revenue went from $0 to $12.5M, driven by the Newsmax+ launch in late 2023, contributing $11.5M.
Affiliate revenue (MVPD licensing fees) skyrocketed from $0 to $26.7M after major contracts kicked in around November 2023
Meanwhile, the Digital segment is slipping. Revenue shrank from $48.8M to $40.3M, driven by a subscriber decline (subscription revenue: $19.1M → $14.5M) and a drop in product sales (mostly e-commerce nutraceuticals, falling from $9.6M to $6M). Why? Lower marketing spend, fewer new customers, less engagement
The Cash Burn Is Real
Growth is great, but profitability? That’s a different story. Net losses ballooned from $19.9M to $72.7M in just three years. Operating cash flow? Cratered from -$7.3M to -$48.7M. Adjust for working capital, and it’s even worse: -14.4M to -$53.1M.** The one bright spot? EBITDA flipped from -$14.6M to $10.2M
Newsmax vs The Big Dogs
Newsmax claims to be the 4 cable news player and a top7 basic cable network (per Nielsen). Its content reaches 57M homes and pulled in 29M viewers in Q4 2024, with a solid chunk of its audience (7.2M) avoiding Fox News altogether. That’s impressive. But does that justify a $17B+ valuation?
Hard no. Growth is one thing, sustainable, profitable growth is another. Right now, Newsmax is spending like it’s already won the media wars but the financials say otherwise.
Lofty Valuation, Serious Risks
Newsmax has been a work in progress since day one. Newsmax 1.0 (1998–2014) was purely digital. Newsmax 2.0 (2014–2022) pushed into cable news and expanded into publishing with the Humanix acquisition. Newsmax 3.0 (2022–present) is all about securing cable licensing deals, launching streaming, paid subscriptions, radio, and podcasting a logical evolution for a media brand trying to maximize monetization and audience stickiness
That’s all well and good. The problem? The stock is wildly overpriced
The Valuation Gap Is Staggering
Let’s cut through the noise. Based on standard valuation metrics Price2Revenue, EV2Revenue, and EV2EBITDA Newsmax trades at multiples far beyond its peer group. Even in the most generous scenario, the company would need to hit $6.01 billion in revenue and $1.11 billion in adjusted operating cash flow just to be reasonably valued. Reality check: 2023 revenue was just $171 million
A Ticking Time Bomb
Yes, Newsmax has $304M in net cash, even after setting aside $54.6M for settlements including
40M (plus $10M in warrants) to Smartmatic for election related disinformation. But here’s the bigger issue: Dominion Voting Systems sued Newsmax for $1.6 billion over similar claims, with punitive damages on the table
Fox News settled for $787.5M in a nearly identical case
Newsmax’s trial starts this month, and a major judgment could cripple its financial position
Overhyped & Overvalued
Newsmax has a growth story, sure. But the valuation makes zero sense, the financials can’t justify the stock price, and the litigation risk is massive. Even in a best case scenario, this stock is set for a brutal reality check.
If you got gains, take profit and throw a party. Don’t forget to invite me!
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🟣MasterClass moonypto.com/masterclass
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
t.me/moonyptofarsi
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
t.me/moonyptofarsi
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.