NQ1!, New Balance Range Established
Updated
The market pulled back to previous 3 day low and completed the range. I have put a box around the new range to watch. This is a normal market action - a development phase, finding a short term top, finding a short term bottom than consolidation within that range. Even though the daily bar looks bearish in reality there is no damage have been done to the bullish case. The breakout from the balance below remains intact. I anticipate that the buyers will continue to be active at supports. A break below today's low would be a red flag for the bulls. 3 scenarios could play if that happens:
1. An accelerated move to 6687 Jan 2019 POC
2. A retest of the breakout area 6800 and push back into the 6 day balance.
3. A potential breach of the 6800 with a snappy push back suggesting a false breakdown, which will be ideal in order to push back above 7000
Of course the market can do something else and offer a completely different scenario. Tomorrow is Friday and options expiration event. Based on the implied volatility and expected moves for the week ending February 8 the ranges are 6759-7000. The upper target was tagged earlier this week.
Here is what to watch first. The RTH session spent a lot of time building a balance 6856.25-6900 with 6889 POC. That balance was broken to upside suggesting that the buyers re gained a short term control and stabilized the price. If 6889-6900 level holds the buyers will go to retest today's high. Today's low is the last resort...
My personal bias remains neutral-bullish. I'm not projecting long term targets. I prefer to consider inflection points and what the price does around them. Even in today's selling there were a few decent long term opportunities simply based on the observed price action.
02/07/2019
1. An accelerated move to 6687 Jan 2019 POC
2. A retest of the breakout area 6800 and push back into the 6 day balance.
3. A potential breach of the 6800 with a snappy push back suggesting a false breakdown, which will be ideal in order to push back above 7000
Of course the market can do something else and offer a completely different scenario. Tomorrow is Friday and options expiration event. Based on the implied volatility and expected moves for the week ending February 8 the ranges are 6759-7000. The upper target was tagged earlier this week.
Here is what to watch first. The RTH session spent a lot of time building a balance 6856.25-6900 with 6889 POC. That balance was broken to upside suggesting that the buyers re gained a short term control and stabilized the price. If 6889-6900 level holds the buyers will go to retest today's high. Today's low is the last resort...
My personal bias remains neutral-bullish. I'm not projecting long term targets. I prefer to consider inflection points and what the price does around them. Even in today's selling there were a few decent long term opportunities simply based on the observed price action.
02/07/2019
Note
The Globex traders managed to bring price to the bottom of the balance, however, despite multiple attempts the bottom has been defended. No damage to price structure so far. 6884 is February POC. If the buyers remain in control we should see a move back to retest the top of the balance. At this point neither scenarios mentioned above are in play.It was not easy to get long several times today from the balance bottom. Everything looked like the sellers going to break it. But they did not. So long entries worked fine. No shorts today.
02/08/2019
Note
A doji day. The RTH session started from a bullish move off the support, which was a previous resistance, taken out in Globex session. However, the price could not sustain a further move and quickly retraced back. Most of the session the price spent balancing above Friday intraday balance suggesting that the buyers are defending the Friday’s gain. Only in the last hour the price reached my support around 6900. At this point no changes to the price structure and the trading plan.02/11/2019
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