Updated

NQ: A second look

Since I first idea invalidated, I have been forced to take a second look, Expand my count, and do my research. Included is my new count, where I believe we get a pull-back then top in June, then a larger pullback to roughly the same area, with an "unexpected" rally through the end of the summer.
Best,
Cuz

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I have run a couple of more counts, and each one tightens up, just a bit, to where it appears we are having trouble breaking through, and I can see perhaps we are ready to call this the Minuette (iii) and get a proper retrace at the .382 area. Using the CURRENT SEPTEMBER Contract, The range using 3 local lows of (12675, 12800, 13001.75) produces a .382 range, off the high of 14866.75, of 13988.00-14124.75. If you are trading the actual current contract through this Friday, these targets would be reduced by maybe 165 points, although expiration might affect that spread. The .236 range is (14317.50-14403.75). My target range is 14014.25-14040.50 on the September Contract.

Also, I am not updating, above, because I accounted for this as one more high, and the targets have hardly changed. I am seeing what looks to me like early signs of a diagonal structure, but we need a retrace, first. For now, the light blue Subminuette abc is my main count, just moved out to today. OMH would extend this count, but not necessarily invalidate.

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If this is correct, I expect a big Minuette C-Wave Down into the Liquidation Zone. A more standard retrace might include a larger b-c, to maybe 4445-4465, but today's price comes right near the top of Minuette B, on this chart, so I am calling this Minuette B & we have a C down to complete Minute ((iv)) before topping (or double topping). If we move down impulsively, we can observe whether price breaches the .382, which may suggest that the top is in and we would be looking for a larger Minute ((ii)) retrace.

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Today’s action made things less clear. If the current c structure dictates, we could hit upside 1.0 at about 15311. If that holds, and price reverses, that could trigger the move down. Also worth noting that this may be a complete Minute ((iv)) and now we test 4613.

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Want to update, and say we have either completed (or omh) a Minuette (b) OR and this is now my primary, that we are about to complete (or have a truncated) Minuette (v), similar to what it appears ES just did with its omh (which was one tick past the length of its corresponding (i)). I think we are about to get the (a)(b)(c) that is listed on this chart. However, being objective, I think these possibilities are about 50/50.

If it is a (b), then we should get the (c) wave down to between 14100-14700...I know, a big range (.618 extension, up to 1.618 extension). If it is the Minuette (v), then we are looking for a Minute ((iv)) retrace, which if it is to be long, should start exactly like our Minuette (iv)-(v) we just completed. The most recent actual Minute ((iv)) was on the way down into the lows, last September/October, and those were very deep and very quick, going back up. Our current Minute ((ii)), no matter how you count it, in comparison, is at best shallow, .236s all the way up. SO, we don't know how long or short it will be, but it should be deep. I have a new chart that contains a deep and drawn out ((iv)), taken from our ((a)) of Minor B, back in February. Will post a link, here, after I publish.

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No longer believe we will get much of a standard retrace, except under one similar count, the longest retrace in 4 arguably reached near the .382, but this count considers that pullback to be just an "a" wave in our final minuette correction, which turned out to be rather complex, much like the minute ((ii)), back in April.

This last impulse looked extremely hopeful. That is a hallmark of a 5 of 5. The fundamentals have broken down, and all that is left is FOMO and hope.

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Habbening?? That is 5 waves down, for the first time since March.

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Want to add, this is one degree off, so, for example, the Pink Minute waves, that appear to be playing out...those are Minor Waves, that will make up a 5 wave Intermediate impulse for our Primary C of Cycle A. The post was originally just what it says, a second look...at bad forcasts leading up to it, but I changed my count and brought in the ((b)) & ((c)) of B and made them a 1-2... Based on fibs, though, it did not change much, and ultimately it just gave me a better perspective on the time it takes these moves to play out. If that makes sense. I stand by the forecast, but must admit, it is slightly flawed.

CuzDelux

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CuzDelux