$NQ_F: Looks like a weekly uptrend could trigger
Updated
If prices hold up during next week, equities can stage a substantially strong weekly advance. The same pattern is visible in ES_F and 
SPY overall, and also crypto. We might have seen a long lasting major low set in stone in markets across the board. Prices of oil have come down more than 30% since the top 6 months ago, this gives equities a boost over time with a 3-6-9 month lag to reap the fruits of the lower cost of energy as a tailwind for the economy going forward (as depicted in timwest's publication on the subject, see related ideas).
People had reached peak pessimism lately, and even though meme stock gamblers still are around, I believe they might not represent a significant contrarian signal for the broad market but rather simply be the latest incarnation of the penny stock gamblers and pump and dump forum users of old, as a new generation of traders joins the market. Over time we will know more but I suspect this is a meaningful juncture longer term and we should all be paying VERY close attention to the developments in energy, the war in Ukraine, China and the fate of Xi's leadership and zero COVID, renewables and EV adoption and monetary policy of course.
Going forward we have various headwinds as well, potential increase of labor costs if deglobalization/reshoring takes place, higher than target sustained inflation rates and gradually higher bond yields after being suppressed for years in a world in a state of lull for a decade, etc.
I like the idea of focusing on a few core themes and managing risk in concentrated bets to milk said themes in the event of a rally, so my positioning is spread across a small list of individual names, rather than index products. Although it's interesting to track developments in index charts as well.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
SPY overall, and also crypto. We might have seen a long lasting major low set in stone in markets across the board. Prices of oil have come down more than 30% since the top 6 months ago, this gives equities a boost over time with a 3-6-9 month lag to reap the fruits of the lower cost of energy as a tailwind for the economy going forward (as depicted in timwest's publication on the subject, see related ideas). People had reached peak pessimism lately, and even though meme stock gamblers still are around, I believe they might not represent a significant contrarian signal for the broad market but rather simply be the latest incarnation of the penny stock gamblers and pump and dump forum users of old, as a new generation of traders joins the market. Over time we will know more but I suspect this is a meaningful juncture longer term and we should all be paying VERY close attention to the developments in energy, the war in Ukraine, China and the fate of Xi's leadership and zero COVID, renewables and EV adoption and monetary policy of course.
Going forward we have various headwinds as well, potential increase of labor costs if deglobalization/reshoring takes place, higher than target sustained inflation rates and gradually higher bond yields after being suppressed for years in a world in a state of lull for a decade, etc.
I like the idea of focusing on a few core themes and managing risk in concentrated bets to milk said themes in the event of a rally, so my positioning is spread across a small list of individual names, rather than index products. Although it's interesting to track developments in index charts as well.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Note
Note
Note the 50% speed line and the invasion level above, if that obstacle is sorted out, we can have higher odds of hitting the target for the potential weekly signal here.Trade closed: stop reached
This signal failed, and now we have a bearish signal: If it stays down and accelerates next week we will see a massive decline by EOY.
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