This is an optimistic view of the recovery from the recent selloff.
Reasons for the optimistic bias:
- weak USDX helps exports
- low Crude helps manufacturing
- employment remains steady
- interbank interest rates are lower, liquidity is ample
- tariffs are noise, yet to see objectively based on data what they will do
Its less likely though that we have a clean V bounce, price rarely moves in straight lines specially on the way up. We are yet to see if the recent positive data sustains the bounce or the rally will be sold by people who bought the top and try to get out at a smaller loss before it gets worse (and it may). In any case there is another leg down wether one support level lower or starting to create the staircase upwards we will see. The timescale might drag out into longer consolidation before move up depending on data, but the next earnings cycle around mid-May could prove the growth scare wrong. The projections are based on a similar pattern last year scaled to current moves.
Reasons for the optimistic bias:
- weak USDX helps exports
- low Crude helps manufacturing
- employment remains steady
- interbank interest rates are lower, liquidity is ample
- tariffs are noise, yet to see objectively based on data what they will do
Its less likely though that we have a clean V bounce, price rarely moves in straight lines specially on the way up. We are yet to see if the recent positive data sustains the bounce or the rally will be sold by people who bought the top and try to get out at a smaller loss before it gets worse (and it may). In any case there is another leg down wether one support level lower or starting to create the staircase upwards we will see. The timescale might drag out into longer consolidation before move up depending on data, but the next earnings cycle around mid-May could prove the growth scare wrong. The projections are based on a similar pattern last year scaled to current moves.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.