NVDA had been steadily climbing in a rising channel for the past few days, bouncing neatly off that lower trendline and giving bulls a reason to stay engaged. But today it finally lost that trendline — and to me, that’s a subtle but important shift in control. Buyers didn’t defend like they had before.
The rejection from the $111–$112 zone wasn’t random either. That area has been a sticky level on the daily chart — a prior swing high and also where a heavy Gamma Call Wall sits based on options data. Price tapped it, hesitated, and rolled over. Now with this break of structure on the 1-hour timeframe, I’m starting to lean cautious.
Momentum is fading. MACD is curling down and looks ready to cross bearish. Stoch RSI is already bottomed out, but there’s no bounce signal yet — just drifting in oversold. It feels like bulls are waiting, but not stepping in aggressively anymore.
On the daily chart, this entire push still looks like a lower high within a broader downtrend. And with price now back near $106.70, it’s hanging just above that key $105 level — which is not only a horizontal support zone but also lines up with a High Volume Level and a major GEX magnet. If that breaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see price gravitate toward $102 or even the $100 level where the Put Wall sits heavy.
🔧 Trade Setup Ideas
* Short Bias below $108: If NVDA stays below the broken channel, I’m leaning bearish. A clean rejection near $108–$109 offers a good risk/reward for short entries.
* Target: $105 first, then $102. Stop above $109.50.
* Long only if price reclaims the trendline and closes above $111 with volume. That would negate the breakdown and could signal a squeeze back toward $115.
🧠 Options Perspective (GEX-Informed)
* Put Play Idea: Buying a $105 Put for May 3rd expiry (0–3 DTE) could work if price flushes below $106.70. IV is still elevated, but the IV crush risk is smaller on directional moves.
* Gamma Roadmap:
* $105 = High Volume Node + HVL
* $102 = Strong Put Wall (7.5% GEX support)
* $100 = Final magnet if things really unwind
* Call Side Risk: Unless NVDA cleanly reclaims $111, calls above that level are a trap. A bounce back to $110 would be a fade zone unless momentum shifts.
So in short — the trendline broke, bulls are on their heels, and $105 is the level to watch. Until something changes, I’m favoring downside plays but being patient for cleaner setups.
Not advice — just sharing my thinking as I trade what I see.
The rejection from the $111–$112 zone wasn’t random either. That area has been a sticky level on the daily chart — a prior swing high and also where a heavy Gamma Call Wall sits based on options data. Price tapped it, hesitated, and rolled over. Now with this break of structure on the 1-hour timeframe, I’m starting to lean cautious.
Momentum is fading. MACD is curling down and looks ready to cross bearish. Stoch RSI is already bottomed out, but there’s no bounce signal yet — just drifting in oversold. It feels like bulls are waiting, but not stepping in aggressively anymore.
On the daily chart, this entire push still looks like a lower high within a broader downtrend. And with price now back near $106.70, it’s hanging just above that key $105 level — which is not only a horizontal support zone but also lines up with a High Volume Level and a major GEX magnet. If that breaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see price gravitate toward $102 or even the $100 level where the Put Wall sits heavy.
🔧 Trade Setup Ideas
* Short Bias below $108: If NVDA stays below the broken channel, I’m leaning bearish. A clean rejection near $108–$109 offers a good risk/reward for short entries.
* Target: $105 first, then $102. Stop above $109.50.
* Long only if price reclaims the trendline and closes above $111 with volume. That would negate the breakdown and could signal a squeeze back toward $115.
🧠 Options Perspective (GEX-Informed)
* Put Play Idea: Buying a $105 Put for May 3rd expiry (0–3 DTE) could work if price flushes below $106.70. IV is still elevated, but the IV crush risk is smaller on directional moves.
* Gamma Roadmap:
* $105 = High Volume Node + HVL
* $102 = Strong Put Wall (7.5% GEX support)
* $100 = Final magnet if things really unwind
* Call Side Risk: Unless NVDA cleanly reclaims $111, calls above that level are a trap. A bounce back to $110 would be a fade zone unless momentum shifts.
So in short — the trendline broke, bulls are on their heels, and $105 is the level to watch. Until something changes, I’m favoring downside plays but being patient for cleaner setups.
Not advice — just sharing my thinking as I trade what I see.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.