2/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
NVDA
NVDA and tape in the month ahead (LONG READ)
- wild day y'day
- but let's set our feet and think ahead
- first on nvda, and i'm choosing to post my portfolio/ allocation on this name bc it's an important one for mkt sentiment, risk, geopol etc.
NVDA
5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- majority of world still thinks AI is a meme and on this topic, it's not. your job is now a meme. these chips have such a moat and demand that incremental margin doesn't matter. you're getting 0.5x PEG and 3.5% fcf yield. we're at the value region, anything lower (toward $100) and i'm considering that despair/capitulation and i'll take the LEAPS to 10%.
TSM
5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- geopol punching bag. if you had to pick one between nvda and tsm i don't think you could do it. they're so different and with respective moats. also about 0.5x PEG and 4% fcf yield. we're in value territory and a move closer toward $150 and i'd consider 10% LEAP size.
*pause* why 2-1 leverage V? isn't that risky? yes, leverage risky, but i'm keeping these ITM and have a keen sense for valuation in a 2Y context and want to express this view while keeping cash higher and hence ability to maneuver.
*moving on*
NXT
35% LEAPS (1.5x leverage)
- i've written extensively about this, but to the new crowd you check all boxes. a/ visibility for 1y of growth beats based on backlog and a sleeping consensus, b/ killer ROIC and cash generation, c/ cheap valuation (nearly 10% fcf yield on my #s, and still 7% on cons.), d/ buybacks coming on an underleveraged-cash-rich balance sheet in 2H and e/ the most important factor - an A+ CEO and leadership team
OBTC
20%
- closed end BTC fund trading 10% shy of NAV in last weeks, so way to get BTC exposure ("the king") at a discount in a rocky risk environment
- BTC remains a long duration beta, not yet getting the "wtf freak out" premium that gold has today (and probably bc it's not so well understood - that's cool - good to acknowledge it).
- goal is to stack sats, but diligently and carefully
- best to avoid leverage in the current environment
- would be a full position (i'd make it 30-40%) if/when BTC goes into high 60s or low 70s, otherwise I'm patient. BTC needs catalyst on monetary front to find new highs.
UBER
7.5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- another one i've written about extensively, so check out details
- tl;dr is a/ orthogonal to any foreign content/ tariff BS, b/ great leadership team fwd thinking and on the forefront of AV (autonomous) despite the consensus that's wait and see, c/ growing margins, great returns and tremendous cash generation, d/ 6% fcf yield and sticky safe haven in this tape limit draw down risk, e/ multi-year compounder set and forget at current rate
*honorable mentions*
- names that i trade around, usually high frequency in/out, would perhaps consider larger positions if/when tape behaves. right now i'm only parking in stuff i a/ know really well, b/ see great value for participating and therefore c/ can size them reasonably large. i don't like having a complicated and smorgasbord of names in this tape.
NICE - cheapest B2B software moving the AI needle into their customers w good growth, high cash gen and heavy buyback incoming
$DECK/
YETI - the only two discretionary names (in a tough consumer) that are on my high watchlist given growth/ cash generation and combination of the two. tricky. needs to be managed carefully in this consumer-eat-dirt environment.
MU / 
ALAB - the two semis I think are interesting ex- TSM and $NVDA. MU for HBM being a key grower inside inference applications and probably massively understated on my math and ALAB bc they're able to offer some crazy performance benefits and the #s are outstanding w/ cash gen following.
BLDE - the only investable EVTOL business. the 
TMDX result was a "pass" and limited my ST interest here. I'd consider Blade to be a price inelastic Uber with no relevant competition. I'd also think Uber eventually buys these guys.
Hope that helps inform my thinking (as I'm sure I'd get a lot of DMs today) and wanted to spell it all out if you can incorporate into your mosaic/ own PnL.
I'd guess we're most of the way thru this sell-off despite what ______ is saying, mainly b/c we've had an asynchronous dip (so it's hard to notice) and each name has taken it's turn doing the -15% to -50% dump in the last 6-12 months (and especially many recently). The index isn't showing it b/c
SVIX has been the stealth QE/ pins, but I digress. More for another day.
If you're reading this, you woke up today.
So you started with a big W.
Showing up with a positive attitude is a competitive advantage. Don't let that one go. You got this.
Lock in.
V
NVDANVDA and tape in the month ahead (LONG READ)- wild day y'day
- but let's set our feet and think ahead
- first on nvda, and i'm choosing to post my portfolio/ allocation on this name bc it's an important one for mkt sentiment, risk, geopol etc.
NVDA5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- majority of world still thinks AI is a meme and on this topic, it's not. your job is now a meme. these chips have such a moat and demand that incremental margin doesn't matter. you're getting 0.5x PEG and 3.5% fcf yield. we're at the value region, anything lower (toward $100) and i'm considering that despair/capitulation and i'll take the LEAPS to 10%.
TSM 5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- geopol punching bag. if you had to pick one between nvda and tsm i don't think you could do it. they're so different and with respective moats. also about 0.5x PEG and 4% fcf yield. we're in value territory and a move closer toward $150 and i'd consider 10% LEAP size.
*pause* why 2-1 leverage V? isn't that risky? yes, leverage risky, but i'm keeping these ITM and have a keen sense for valuation in a 2Y context and want to express this view while keeping cash higher and hence ability to maneuver.
*moving on*
NXT 35% LEAPS (1.5x leverage)
- i've written extensively about this, but to the new crowd you check all boxes. a/ visibility for 1y of growth beats based on backlog and a sleeping consensus, b/ killer ROIC and cash generation, c/ cheap valuation (nearly 10% fcf yield on my #s, and still 7% on cons.), d/ buybacks coming on an underleveraged-cash-rich balance sheet in 2H and e/ the most important factor - an A+ CEO and leadership team
OBTC20%
- closed end BTC fund trading 10% shy of NAV in last weeks, so way to get BTC exposure ("the king") at a discount in a rocky risk environment
- BTC remains a long duration beta, not yet getting the "wtf freak out" premium that gold has today (and probably bc it's not so well understood - that's cool - good to acknowledge it).
- goal is to stack sats, but diligently and carefully
- best to avoid leverage in the current environment
- would be a full position (i'd make it 30-40%) if/when BTC goes into high 60s or low 70s, otherwise I'm patient. BTC needs catalyst on monetary front to find new highs.
UBER7.5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- another one i've written about extensively, so check out details
- tl;dr is a/ orthogonal to any foreign content/ tariff BS, b/ great leadership team fwd thinking and on the forefront of AV (autonomous) despite the consensus that's wait and see, c/ growing margins, great returns and tremendous cash generation, d/ 6% fcf yield and sticky safe haven in this tape limit draw down risk, e/ multi-year compounder set and forget at current rate
*honorable mentions*
- names that i trade around, usually high frequency in/out, would perhaps consider larger positions if/when tape behaves. right now i'm only parking in stuff i a/ know really well, b/ see great value for participating and therefore c/ can size them reasonably large. i don't like having a complicated and smorgasbord of names in this tape.
NICE - cheapest B2B software moving the AI needle into their customers w good growth, high cash gen and heavy buyback incoming$DECK/
YETI - the only two discretionary names (in a tough consumer) that are on my high watchlist given growth/ cash generation and combination of the two. tricky. needs to be managed carefully in this consumer-eat-dirt environment.MU / ALAB - the two semis I think are interesting ex- TSM and $NVDA. MU for HBM being a key grower inside inference applications and probably massively understated on my math and ALAB bc they're able to offer some crazy performance benefits and the #s are outstanding w/ cash gen following.BLDE - the only investable EVTOL business. the TMDX result was a "pass" and limited my ST interest here. I'd consider Blade to be a price inelastic Uber with no relevant competition. I'd also think Uber eventually buys these guys.Hope that helps inform my thinking (as I'm sure I'd get a lot of DMs today) and wanted to spell it all out if you can incorporate into your mosaic/ own PnL.
I'd guess we're most of the way thru this sell-off despite what ______ is saying, mainly b/c we've had an asynchronous dip (so it's hard to notice) and each name has taken it's turn doing the -15% to -50% dump in the last 6-12 months (and especially many recently). The index isn't showing it b/c
SVIX has been the stealth QE/ pins, but I digress. More for another day.If you're reading this, you woke up today.
So you started with a big W.
Showing up with a positive attitude is a competitive advantage. Don't let that one go. You got this.
Lock in.
V
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.