NZDCAD Close to a medium-term buy signal
The NZDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since late February 2021. Yesterday it bounced off the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line that started on the June 18 2021 Low. Even though this suggests that the price is at or at least very close to the new medium-term bottom (Lower Low), the indicator that has given a confirmed buy signal since April 2021 is the MACD on the 1D time-frame.
As this chart shows, every time the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, the price always makes (even a short-term) rebound. The MACD Bullish Cross is typically formed just a few days after the price bottom (Lower Low). The previous Lower Lows have rallied to the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down in the past two events. At the same time, almost all MACD Bullish Crosses have made the price test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), while all have made it test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Assuming we are at or close to the new bottom, the current 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is around 0.85930, where the 1D MA200 is roughly projected to be by late June. On the other hand, a 1D candle close below the Channel Down, sets in motion a test of the lower Fibonacci extensions at 0.8000 even 0.78000.
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As this chart shows, every time the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, the price always makes (even a short-term) rebound. The MACD Bullish Cross is typically formed just a few days after the price bottom (Lower Low). The previous Lower Lows have rallied to the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down in the past two events. At the same time, almost all MACD Bullish Crosses have made the price test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), while all have made it test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Assuming we are at or close to the new bottom, the current 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is around 0.85930, where the 1D MA200 is roughly projected to be by late June. On the other hand, a 1D candle close below the Channel Down, sets in motion a test of the lower Fibonacci extensions at 0.8000 even 0.78000.
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