NZDUSD Short off NFP
Updated
NFP pushed NU skyward in what appeared to be a stop loss grab. This pair has been on a steady rise for some time, but it appears that a medium-term correction is in the works. I'm looking at multiple timeframes and will post additional charts below.
Looking at the daily, we are up against a descending trendline and a double-top. The RSI is signaling overbought. I placed vertical orange lines to indicate what the price in the past when it was at these higher RSI levels. On lower timesframes, such as 1h, the price has crossed over, then been rejected by the 200MA. We are also looking at some divergence on this 1D timeframe (bright green line). Here is my trade:
Entry- 0.72940
Stop-loss- 0.73590
Take-profit target- 0.71455 (also the 0.382 fib level from the previous rise)
Thanks for looking an good luck.
-Zedro
Looking at the daily, we are up against a descending trendline and a double-top. The RSI is signaling overbought. I placed vertical orange lines to indicate what the price in the past when it was at these higher RSI levels. On lower timesframes, such as 1h, the price has crossed over, then been rejected by the 200MA. We are also looking at some divergence on this 1D timeframe (bright green line). Here is my trade:
Entry- 0.72940
Stop-loss- 0.73590
Take-profit target- 0.71455 (also the 0.382 fib level from the previous rise)
Thanks for looking an good luck.
-Zedro
Trade active
As you can see, I took advantage of that spike up on NFP. Hopefully, I'm not being faked out on this sudden reversal following the spike, but I'm confident that a reversal has been confirmed. The crossover and subsequent retesting of the 200MA is a good sign. Price is currently fighting the Ich Cloud, so a close below (1h) is a great sign.
Trade active
The top of the Ich Cloud on the four hour timeframe acted as a sort of ceiling for NU on this NFP spike. The price appears ready to continue below the bottom of the Ich Cloud, which confirms a downtrend, in my opinion.
Note
It looks like we are finally rolling on this short. I'm looking to take partial profits at near the 200MA (black line) on the 4h chart. I expect we'll see a bounce off this area (0.72215), which should provide an opportunity to sell more at a higher level. Trade closed manually
I'm closing this position ahead of the Yellen testimony. I'm not sure what affect it will have on the markets, but seeing as I'm in profit, it's probably best to get out and see what happens.Absent of any news today, I'd say the price will continue down in the direction of my target. I'd look for better selling opportunities if the price jumps on account of this news. I'd say this ended up being an OK trade, but certainly not as profitable as predicted.
Good luck!
Note
Glad I got out when I did! That jump popped right through my initial SL. Hope everybody else did the same.
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