NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS
NZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
At their April meeting the RBNZ surprise economists but not STIR markets by delivering a 50bsp hike, taking the OCR to 1.50%. The bank stressed, like most others, that inflation is a concern and that they will ensure that higher price pressures don’t become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. The NZD initially pushed higher after the 50bsp hike (surprising economists) but it faded initial strength to trade much lower (as a 50bsp was almost fully priced by STIR markets). The statement reflected the hawkish tone we’ve grown accustomed to see from the bank over the past few months with the Committee saying they agreed that their policy ‘path of least regrets’ was to increase the OCR by 50bsp now rather than later, and of course stated that more hikes
are needed (in line with their OCR projections). The one less hawkish element for the decision was that the bank didn’t increase their neutral rate expectations and instead said they are comfortable with their February MPS OCR outlook. The markets wanted to see a clear promise of more 50bsp hikes or alternatively wanted to see an increase of the neutral rate expectations, and without either of those the 50bsp hike was simply seen as front-loading. As a result of this, money markets were pricing in just a 25bsp for May for the majority of Wednesday. But after calls from Westpac, ASB and Kiwibank for a 50bsp in May we saw the NZD regain some composure on Thursday as STIR markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50bsp hike. The RBNZ remain hawkish, but a lot of that is arguably priced in and might not continue to offer much more support for the NZD. Economic outlook The econ outlook looks solid as growth & inflation is expected to accelerate, home prices up 30%, commodity prices supported, and a ratified trade deal with China (opening more Chinese markets for NZ goods). Given it’s trade with China and Australia the recent Covid situation in China is a short-term negative for the NZD.
2. Global Risk Outlook
As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD.
3. CFTC Analysis
Most recent positioning data suggest some bearish sentiment for the NZD, but positioning remains close to neutral across participant categories. With a lot of one-side upside in recent weeks we do need to take extra caution for pullbacks, especially with the current Covid situation getting worse in China.
4. The Week Ahead
For the week ahead the Q1 CPI print and Covid headlines in China will be the main highlights for the NZD. On the inflation side, markets are looking for yet another solid print for the Q1 CPI with headline YY seen printing above 7% (which will be the highest since the early 90’s). The big question is whether the event will matter much for the RNBZ, and thus for the NZD. As always, a much higher or lower than expected print for CPI can spark some short-term volatility, but it won’t really be enough to change the market’s expectations for the OCR. Despite the RBNZ not really providing any clear signals of another 50bsp hike, STIR markets are pricing the odds of another 50bsp above 60%. Thus, a solid beat might see markets pricing in a 50bsp hike with a bit more certainty, while a miss might see them only pricing in a 25bsp. The point is that it won’t change much for the bigger picture for the RBNZ, which means the impact of the event might be more short-lived for the NZD. It also means that the short-term concerns regarding China might be the bigger driver for the NZD as well as the AUD in the week ahead, where any increasingly negative developments ‘should’ add pressure on the NZD while any positive developments ‘should be supportive. The upcoming PBoC meeting will also be closely watched as bigger-than-expected stimulus could ease some of the Covid concerns.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes.
2. Global & Domestic Economy
As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD.
3. CFTC Analysis
Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs.
4. The Week Ahead
The week will be thin in terms of US economic data, with the Philly Fed Business Index and S&P Global Flash PMIs the main highlights. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another fasterthan-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that growth data surprise higher though, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. What that means is that we need to be mindful of the possibility that current USD bulls take some profit as we push into major and key 2020 resistance levels (2-year highs and new cycle
highs). As a growth hedge, the current environment of slowing growth and a hawkish Fed bodes well for the USD, which means the med-term bullish bias remains intact, but the risk to reward of chasing it at the highs is not very attractive right now, and means patience is not a bad idea right now.
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
At their April meeting the RBNZ surprise economists but not STIR markets by delivering a 50bsp hike, taking the OCR to 1.50%. The bank stressed, like most others, that inflation is a concern and that they will ensure that higher price pressures don’t become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. The NZD initially pushed higher after the 50bsp hike (surprising economists) but it faded initial strength to trade much lower (as a 50bsp was almost fully priced by STIR markets). The statement reflected the hawkish tone we’ve grown accustomed to see from the bank over the past few months with the Committee saying they agreed that their policy ‘path of least regrets’ was to increase the OCR by 50bsp now rather than later, and of course stated that more hikes
are needed (in line with their OCR projections). The one less hawkish element for the decision was that the bank didn’t increase their neutral rate expectations and instead said they are comfortable with their February MPS OCR outlook. The markets wanted to see a clear promise of more 50bsp hikes or alternatively wanted to see an increase of the neutral rate expectations, and without either of those the 50bsp hike was simply seen as front-loading. As a result of this, money markets were pricing in just a 25bsp for May for the majority of Wednesday. But after calls from Westpac, ASB and Kiwibank for a 50bsp in May we saw the NZD regain some composure on Thursday as STIR markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50bsp hike. The RBNZ remain hawkish, but a lot of that is arguably priced in and might not continue to offer much more support for the NZD. Economic outlook The econ outlook looks solid as growth & inflation is expected to accelerate, home prices up 30%, commodity prices supported, and a ratified trade deal with China (opening more Chinese markets for NZ goods). Given it’s trade with China and Australia the recent Covid situation in China is a short-term negative for the NZD.
2. Global Risk Outlook
As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD.
3. CFTC Analysis
Most recent positioning data suggest some bearish sentiment for the NZD, but positioning remains close to neutral across participant categories. With a lot of one-side upside in recent weeks we do need to take extra caution for pullbacks, especially with the current Covid situation getting worse in China.
4. The Week Ahead
For the week ahead the Q1 CPI print and Covid headlines in China will be the main highlights for the NZD. On the inflation side, markets are looking for yet another solid print for the Q1 CPI with headline YY seen printing above 7% (which will be the highest since the early 90’s). The big question is whether the event will matter much for the RNBZ, and thus for the NZD. As always, a much higher or lower than expected print for CPI can spark some short-term volatility, but it won’t really be enough to change the market’s expectations for the OCR. Despite the RBNZ not really providing any clear signals of another 50bsp hike, STIR markets are pricing the odds of another 50bsp above 60%. Thus, a solid beat might see markets pricing in a 50bsp hike with a bit more certainty, while a miss might see them only pricing in a 25bsp. The point is that it won’t change much for the bigger picture for the RBNZ, which means the impact of the event might be more short-lived for the NZD. It also means that the short-term concerns regarding China might be the bigger driver for the NZD as well as the AUD in the week ahead, where any increasingly negative developments ‘should’ add pressure on the NZD while any positive developments ‘should be supportive. The upcoming PBoC meeting will also be closely watched as bigger-than-expected stimulus could ease some of the Covid concerns.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes.
2. Global & Domestic Economy
As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD.
3. CFTC Analysis
Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs.
4. The Week Ahead
The week will be thin in terms of US economic data, with the Philly Fed Business Index and S&P Global Flash PMIs the main highlights. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another fasterthan-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that growth data surprise higher though, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. What that means is that we need to be mindful of the possibility that current USD bulls take some profit as we push into major and key 2020 resistance levels (2-year highs and new cycle
highs). As a growth hedge, the current environment of slowing growth and a hawkish Fed bodes well for the USD, which means the med-term bullish bias remains intact, but the risk to reward of chasing it at the highs is not very attractive right now, and means patience is not a bad idea right now.
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