NZD/USD – FED Rate – Technical & Fundamental Combo
Updated
NZD/USD has been trading higher ahead of the today’s US Inflation Reports, Federal Reserve Rate Statement and the highly anticipated FOMC Press Conference.
Fundamental View:
From a Fundamental point of view, most market analysts are expecting FED to raise the rates by 0.25% benchmark points, from 1.00% towards 1.25%.
This of course is causing a positive sentiment for buyers and it can be seen on the charts.
The main focus would however be on Janet Yellen’s words during scheduled the Press Conference after the Rate Hike would be confirmed.
Market Participants will be looking for clearer views in regards to FED’s future plans.
Buy & Sell triggers will most likely come from comments reflecting further tightening or policy normalization.
The key factor would most likely be Janet Yellen’s comments regarding their plans to reduce the $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
That being said, it will be an interesting day for the USD with most traders having Bullish views.
Elliott Wave – Technical View:
NZD/USD has been trading in an up-trend for a month now and the current Bullish Cycle, according to the Elliott Wave labels, is looking like it might complete its final moves.
Wave Labeling:
• NZD/USD started its current up-trend with Minor Wave 1 (light blue) followed by its Retracement in Minor 2 (light blue).
• Minor 3 (light blue) developed a Running Flat Structure in its Minute IV (green) sub-wave.
• Another Running Flat Structure can be spotted within Minor 4 (light blue).
Speculative Bearish View:
• The last leg on the Minor scale, which is Minor 5 (light blue), seems to be ending very soon, just in time for such significant news to be released.
• A Bearish Divergence can be seen on the Volumes Indicator, which is quite a good thing to have at the end of a 5th Wave.
• Price Action is possibly rejected from the Resistance Trend-Line (purple).
Fibonacci Measurements:
• Minor 3 (light blue) ends at the 150-161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors 1&2 (light blue) and at 50% Fibonacci Retracements of Feb-May decline.
• Minor 5 (light blue) is possibly ending at the 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors 3&4, also 78.6% Fibonacci Retracements of Feb-May decline.
Bearish Signs traders would look for:
• A Breach of the Bullish Channel could trigger a sell-off towards 0.70000 or even lower.
• If sudden Bearish Breach, a Flag Formation would pose as a good sign for further declines.
Levels in Focus:
Possible Bearish Levels – 0.72600 & 0.73200
Invalidation – 0.73800
Targets – 0.70000 & 0.69200
Many pips ahead!
Fundamental View:
From a Fundamental point of view, most market analysts are expecting FED to raise the rates by 0.25% benchmark points, from 1.00% towards 1.25%.
This of course is causing a positive sentiment for buyers and it can be seen on the charts.
The main focus would however be on Janet Yellen’s words during scheduled the Press Conference after the Rate Hike would be confirmed.
Market Participants will be looking for clearer views in regards to FED’s future plans.
Buy & Sell triggers will most likely come from comments reflecting further tightening or policy normalization.
The key factor would most likely be Janet Yellen’s comments regarding their plans to reduce the $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
That being said, it will be an interesting day for the USD with most traders having Bullish views.
Elliott Wave – Technical View:
NZD/USD has been trading in an up-trend for a month now and the current Bullish Cycle, according to the Elliott Wave labels, is looking like it might complete its final moves.
Wave Labeling:
• NZD/USD started its current up-trend with Minor Wave 1 (light blue) followed by its Retracement in Minor 2 (light blue).
• Minor 3 (light blue) developed a Running Flat Structure in its Minute IV (green) sub-wave.
• Another Running Flat Structure can be spotted within Minor 4 (light blue).
Speculative Bearish View:
• The last leg on the Minor scale, which is Minor 5 (light blue), seems to be ending very soon, just in time for such significant news to be released.
• A Bearish Divergence can be seen on the Volumes Indicator, which is quite a good thing to have at the end of a 5th Wave.
• Price Action is possibly rejected from the Resistance Trend-Line (purple).
Fibonacci Measurements:
• Minor 3 (light blue) ends at the 150-161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors 1&2 (light blue) and at 50% Fibonacci Retracements of Feb-May decline.
• Minor 5 (light blue) is possibly ending at the 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors 3&4, also 78.6% Fibonacci Retracements of Feb-May decline.
Bearish Signs traders would look for:
• A Breach of the Bullish Channel could trigger a sell-off towards 0.70000 or even lower.
• If sudden Bearish Breach, a Flag Formation would pose as a good sign for further declines.
Levels in Focus:
Possible Bearish Levels – 0.72600 & 0.73200
Invalidation – 0.73800
Targets – 0.70000 & 0.69200
Many pips ahead!
Note
Watching the lower channel trend-line, looking for a break-out and then a flag.Note
Chart Update on Structure change:Note
Trade closed at break-even, waiting for final wave up and then selling ... hard.
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