Long

Updated

NZDUSD preparing to go up

Price is finishing a five wave bearish impulse move, so I then expect a corrective move up to .382 - .618 Fib levels.
I won't go long just yet and definitely not short.

Wait for price to turn before buying, don't try to catch a falling knife, you'll just bleed to death !

Note

So, the alternative count is right, price is now doing one last move down as an impulse wave of smaller degree

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We are in wave 4 of this impulse. The channeling technique works quite well to estimate the end of it. Retracement is ~.663 to ~0.668.
Price needs to hold below w1 for it to be a valid Impulse count.

If you want some intraday trades, short down to w5 once w4 ends.
SL : wave 4 high
TP1: 0.656 (move SL to Break-Even once this target is hit)
TP2: ~0.65

Note

Price touched .382 Fib but still think a little more downside is possible

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Down trend probably ended 0.6545.
We are now in
*Long entry made at 0.6577
SL at last low at first, now moved to break-even.
Half profit taken now at 0.6696

Notice, there is a gap from 6723 to 6742 (yellow box) on my brokers chart, and price has a tendency to fill them.

Trade active

Entry made 6577
SL moved to break-even from 6530

Trade closed: target reached

Taking half profits from long position now at 0.6696 with +119pips.

Price touched previous bearish wave 1 territory, so now i'm sure that bearish impulse wave is definitely over.

This bullish impulse wave, ended in a throw-over, so now price will retrace a part of this move.

Usual Fib retracement levels are 0.32 to 0.618 .
Notice that retracements often stop at the wave 4 of previous motive wave and that 0.618level is at the same price also.

**Don't short it, as price might retrace less than you could expect.
**Wait for the correction to end then start buying again.

Note

Alternative count

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Alternative count

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Wrong chart in previous Comment.

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Another one

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(As said on AUDUSD post, don't trade when exhausted !)

Here, price is playing similarly to AUDUSD, thats why I broke my usual size in half.
So, first count was right. Exhaustion explains the alternative counts.

Nothing much to do for now, just wait for the red trend line to be tested.
! **If there is a clear break and close above it, I'll buy into it again.

Note

Taking some profits.
SL moved 1pip below wave 1 high.
Wait for pullback and look for new opportunity to buy.

ElliottWaveBelgium

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ElliottWaveBelgium