Paychex (PAYX) Revenue miss... Is this the end?
Updated
Hi guys! As always, im looking for macro trends/ signals and critical movements/ developments in the markets.
What caught my eye is PAYX.
Today it gets the focus as it had Q3 revenue miss and its down 6% pre-market.
With panic coming in, ill go over technical developments and the big picture.
Lets jump in. We are in the 1 week timeframe (note this weeks candle has not yet printed and can current develops can change throughout the week).
Currently, we are range bound between $100.00 and $133.00.
After the large bull run it had looking left. It is now in a period of accumulation/ consolidation in my opinion.
This pattern started December 2021. So its a long-term pattern. Which will take alot to break out of.
Breaking to upside would continue the bull run to new all-time highs.
Getting there though, will take time. And we must break other obstacles first.
First thing to break is the Short-term resistance trendline.
2nd thing to break is the upsloping channel highlighted, which is a intermediate trend.
If we get rejected from any of these obstacles, we can also continue down to test the lower border of the range.
Our first test of support would be the lower border of the sloping channel.
We must also watch VOLUME -> increase in volume would help us with breaking this obstacles and eventually getting us to the top of the range and an eventual breakout.
Watch also the 2 indicators i put up.
MACD -> We need a bullish cross with the lines moving ABOVE black horizontal trendline to form a higher high. This would help the case of breaking trends, moving above the consolidation range and to new highs.
If we get a bearish cross we can retest the support line of the ascending channel and lower range of the consolidation zone.
RSI - A HIgher high print is needed to continue upward and eventually out of the consolidation range. Notice however the resistance ABOVE us, depicted by the trendlines.
A bearish case is printing a Lower low, doing so may bring us down to the black support trendline. Depending on how low the RSI goes, will determine how far down we go as well.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on PAYX in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
What caught my eye is PAYX.
Today it gets the focus as it had Q3 revenue miss and its down 6% pre-market.
With panic coming in, ill go over technical developments and the big picture.
Lets jump in. We are in the 1 week timeframe (note this weeks candle has not yet printed and can current develops can change throughout the week).
Currently, we are range bound between $100.00 and $133.00.
After the large bull run it had looking left. It is now in a period of accumulation/ consolidation in my opinion.
This pattern started December 2021. So its a long-term pattern. Which will take alot to break out of.
Breaking to upside would continue the bull run to new all-time highs.
Getting there though, will take time. And we must break other obstacles first.
First thing to break is the Short-term resistance trendline.
2nd thing to break is the upsloping channel highlighted, which is a intermediate trend.
If we get rejected from any of these obstacles, we can also continue down to test the lower border of the range.
Our first test of support would be the lower border of the sloping channel.
We must also watch VOLUME -> increase in volume would help us with breaking this obstacles and eventually getting us to the top of the range and an eventual breakout.
Watch also the 2 indicators i put up.
MACD -> We need a bullish cross with the lines moving ABOVE black horizontal trendline to form a higher high. This would help the case of breaking trends, moving above the consolidation range and to new highs.
If we get a bearish cross we can retest the support line of the ascending channel and lower range of the consolidation zone.
RSI - A HIgher high print is needed to continue upward and eventually out of the consolidation range. Notice however the resistance ABOVE us, depicted by the trendlines.
A bearish case is printing a Lower low, doing so may bring us down to the black support trendline. Depending on how low the RSI goes, will determine how far down we go as well.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on PAYX in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Note
Yesterdays candle was able to break out of the short-term resistance trendline.
However we require confirmation, where a second candle must print ABOVE and confirm the breakout.
indicators signaling that momentum may come in for push UP.
RSI has printed a higher high
STOCH RSI bullish cross
MACD has also crossed Bullish but a move ABOVE 0 lvl can bring in strong momentum for continued upside.
Keep your focus on PAYX today.
COnfirmation ABOVE trendline may be an area to take positions.
Note
Update on PAYX. On 1 week timeframe.
Topping tail candle last week was printed. Indicating rejection from Short-term resistance trendline.
The breif breakout was a fakeout.
This weeks candle is a Bearish engulfing candle. Adding to decrease in demand from last week as well.
We would need to regain all our losses from this week to change the lack of demand.
The play was to take positions from a break above and confirmation of the short term resistance. Since it aint happening, look for demand below us.
Note
Short term support below us. But the size of Engulfing candle would be kinda like a freight train hitting this support, in my opinion. So watch carefully.
My bet would be a retest of the lower end of channel.
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