PLUG- Future of hydrogen clean energy is uncertain
PLUG is arguably the leader of hydrogen fuel cell company. However, there are several concerns that need to be addressed.
#1. Hydrogen clean energy is still at the proof-of-concept stage and the natural gas industry seems to be its biggest advocate. Hydrogen gas is emission-free only if it's made by electrolysis from renewable energy.
#2. Currently, major renewable technologies include hydroelectricity, solar PV and wind power. Unlike solar and wind power, hydrogen doesn't occur naturally and needs to be manufactured from natural gas. This means that the significant time and cost will go toward setting up expensive infrastructure, storage and distribution networks making hydrogen power much harder and much more expensive to scale compared to solar and wind.
#3. Personal transport is one of the biggest application of the hydrogen, yet FCEV (Hydrogen) is steadily losing ground against BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle). The falling battery price and EV tax credit will only accelerate the adoption of EV, further widening the gap between FCEV and BEV.
#4. Sky high valuation and recent accounting issues.
I'm ambivalent toward PLUG and other fuel cell companies in general. However, I think it is a speculative bet and a good candidate for the swing trade given that one of the focuses of Biden's 2.25 trillion infrastructure plan is renewable power and that investors just love to throw their money on anything related to green energy due to the global decarbonization initiative that aims to reduce the CO2 emission by 50% in 2030.
I would initiate a small long position inside the demand zone. Conservative play is to set the target at the daily POC and exit completely. Alternatively, you can sell 50% and keep the remaining position as the potential long-term holding.
Do your own research. Not the investment advice.
#1. Hydrogen clean energy is still at the proof-of-concept stage and the natural gas industry seems to be its biggest advocate. Hydrogen gas is emission-free only if it's made by electrolysis from renewable energy.
#2. Currently, major renewable technologies include hydroelectricity, solar PV and wind power. Unlike solar and wind power, hydrogen doesn't occur naturally and needs to be manufactured from natural gas. This means that the significant time and cost will go toward setting up expensive infrastructure, storage and distribution networks making hydrogen power much harder and much more expensive to scale compared to solar and wind.
#3. Personal transport is one of the biggest application of the hydrogen, yet FCEV (Hydrogen) is steadily losing ground against BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle). The falling battery price and EV tax credit will only accelerate the adoption of EV, further widening the gap between FCEV and BEV.
#4. Sky high valuation and recent accounting issues.
I'm ambivalent toward PLUG and other fuel cell companies in general. However, I think it is a speculative bet and a good candidate for the swing trade given that one of the focuses of Biden's 2.25 trillion infrastructure plan is renewable power and that investors just love to throw their money on anything related to green energy due to the global decarbonization initiative that aims to reduce the CO2 emission by 50% in 2030.
I would initiate a small long position inside the demand zone. Conservative play is to set the target at the daily POC and exit completely. Alternatively, you can sell 50% and keep the remaining position as the potential long-term holding.
Do your own research. Not the investment advice.
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