$QQQ Melt Up
I have a few trend lines that appear to be pretty reliable. They don't need to be perfect but a good guide. Price might break through them for a day or so but as long as these trends are alive, it seems to obey fitting back between them.
The bar patterns were taken from recent price action in relation to these trend lines and true ranges, so they should be relevant.
Today's price action was intriguing. Despite the gap up which got sold early in the day, it rallied back. I think smart money sold the open and dumb money is bidding up price during cash session. It's been a predictable day-trading move-- wait for the volatile moves down to stop about mid-day and buy the dip. Easy. Well, lots of other things seem to point to me that sellers are going to take healthy profits off the board this week, and leave others to hold the bag, at least temporarily.
A few things to start with. I have a simple script here with a gradient background to help me visualize things with colors. Here's this chart without that (for those that like charts very minimalistic)
[With this script and color gradient enabled, it's pretty much just the close divided by a 20 length moving average, with a 20 day stochastic applied. For QQQ it looks like its produced some great signals. And it is about to overheat above the 90 line and signal SELL.]
I'm also looking at the percentage of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) that are above their 200 day moving average.
A lot of great investors like to 'play defense' when stocks are above about 70 or 80%. In other words, they aren't adding to positions and are taking big up days as opportunities to distribute profits.
Here's the
VXN versus NAS100, basically the CBOE VIX but specifically for stocks within the Nasdaq 100.
It's crossing over a 20sma today. While the Nasdaq is actually going up. If you look at the Options Skew on
AAPL I think you can get an idea of why volatility is going up as price is going up.. over-bullishness and greed.
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/AAPL/VolatilitySkew/OTMSpread
The level of bullishness on a 25 delta call versus 25 delta put onAAPL is otherworldly. Market Chameleon doesn't provide older historical data, but its probably one of the most historic levels of extreme greed in the stock's existence.
I'm also looking at the leaders within the NAS100, sorted by YTD% gains. The biggest gainers are starting to turn red on the shortest timeframes. For example: TSLA ZM MRNA DOCU PDD DXCM AMD REGN. Breadth may be running out and this may be on the back ofAAPL, the largest capitalized and heaviest weighted stock, which has moved up over 8.5% in the last 3 days. It may not be the end of the bull. I think unless we get a serious smackdown, who wouldn't want to buy a dip next week?
The bar patterns were taken from recent price action in relation to these trend lines and true ranges, so they should be relevant.
Today's price action was intriguing. Despite the gap up which got sold early in the day, it rallied back. I think smart money sold the open and dumb money is bidding up price during cash session. It's been a predictable day-trading move-- wait for the volatile moves down to stop about mid-day and buy the dip. Easy. Well, lots of other things seem to point to me that sellers are going to take healthy profits off the board this week, and leave others to hold the bag, at least temporarily.
A few things to start with. I have a simple script here with a gradient background to help me visualize things with colors. Here's this chart without that (for those that like charts very minimalistic)
[With this script and color gradient enabled, it's pretty much just the close divided by a 20 length moving average, with a 20 day stochastic applied. For QQQ it looks like its produced some great signals. And it is about to overheat above the 90 line and signal SELL.]
I'm also looking at the percentage of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) that are above their 200 day moving average.
A lot of great investors like to 'play defense' when stocks are above about 70 or 80%. In other words, they aren't adding to positions and are taking big up days as opportunities to distribute profits.
Here's the
VXN versus NAS100, basically the CBOE VIX but specifically for stocks within the Nasdaq 100.It's crossing over a 20sma today. While the Nasdaq is actually going up. If you look at the Options Skew on
AAPL I think you can get an idea of why volatility is going up as price is going up.. over-bullishness and greed.https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/AAPL/VolatilitySkew/OTMSpread
The level of bullishness on a 25 delta call versus 25 delta put on
AAPL is otherworldly. Market Chameleon doesn't provide older historical data, but its probably one of the most historic levels of extreme greed in the stock's existence.I'm also looking at the leaders within the NAS100, sorted by YTD% gains. The biggest gainers are starting to turn red on the shortest timeframes. For example: TSLA ZM MRNA DOCU PDD DXCM AMD REGN. Breadth may be running out and this may be on the back of
AAPL, the largest capitalized and heaviest weighted stock, which has moved up over 8.5% in the last 3 days. It may not be the end of the bull. I think unless we get a serious smackdown, who wouldn't want to buy a dip next week?
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