A very prominent gap was just filled on QQQ. This was likely a profit target for many traders. What's next?
Bull Case:
1. NASDAQ has retraced more than .78% of the move which usually indicates that this is not a counter rally, rather a rally towards a new high.
2. The trend is undoubtedly bullish.
3. Tech has been leading the rally and QQQ/NASDAQ is heavily weighted in tech.
4. There is a record number of puts on the market making a great opportunity for market makers to take the other side of the trade to run stops. Shorts are buying as they get squeezed.
5. Tech isn't affected by the stay at home orders. On the contrary, they are thriving in it as people are turning to technology for entertainment, socializing, and work.
Bear Case:
1. Counter trend rallies in a bear market are the strongest rallies. This may be nothing more than a "return to normal" phase which fools investors.
2. The gap was filled and is a great place for longs to take profit.
3. The technical damage done by the initial drop still lingers and anyone fearing riding the market down a second time are likely looking for an exit.
4. Even if the market clears the gap, there is strong overhead resistance from a trend line that goes back to 2015 indicating that a new high likely wouldn't hold.
5. A new high during a time of a pandemic seems unimaginable.
Please seem my related ideas below. One chart shows I was able to predict the bottom and a likely top of the current rally. The second chart shows strong overhead resistance which will likely be a turning point if the market should rally to that level.
Bull Case:
1. NASDAQ has retraced more than .78% of the move which usually indicates that this is not a counter rally, rather a rally towards a new high.
2. The trend is undoubtedly bullish.
3. Tech has been leading the rally and QQQ/NASDAQ is heavily weighted in tech.
4. There is a record number of puts on the market making a great opportunity for market makers to take the other side of the trade to run stops. Shorts are buying as they get squeezed.
5. Tech isn't affected by the stay at home orders. On the contrary, they are thriving in it as people are turning to technology for entertainment, socializing, and work.
Bear Case:
1. Counter trend rallies in a bear market are the strongest rallies. This may be nothing more than a "return to normal" phase which fools investors.
2. The gap was filled and is a great place for longs to take profit.
3. The technical damage done by the initial drop still lingers and anyone fearing riding the market down a second time are likely looking for an exit.
4. Even if the market clears the gap, there is strong overhead resistance from a trend line that goes back to 2015 indicating that a new high likely wouldn't hold.
5. A new high during a time of a pandemic seems unimaginable.
Please seem my related ideas below. One chart shows I was able to predict the bottom and a likely top of the current rally. The second chart shows strong overhead resistance which will likely be a turning point if the market should rally to that level.
My goal is to find the best risk:reward setups. For instance, if you risk $1,000 at a chance to make $5,000, you can afford to be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still not lose money. I hit my targets over 50% of the time.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
My goal is to find the best risk:reward setups. For instance, if you risk $1,000 at a chance to make $5,000, you can afford to be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still not lose money. I hit my targets over 50% of the time.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.