Headwinds and the clouds
Updated
See notes on chart:
Flat Kijun-sen tends to act as resistance both to price and Chikou-span.
Closed three days ago @105.83, hanging man
Closed two days ago @ 105.63, hanging man, hammer
Closed Friday @105.67, doji, spinning top. High of day touched and rejected by the Senkou-Span B a flat top attraction of Kumo trading.
Last three closes failed to break resistance @ 106.23 which is very close to a 50%(105.30) retrace of recent price action high from 12-2-15 to the low on 2-8-16
Thursday's close was the end of 17 periods (a kumo time line) as well as Friday's close being on the day before the 65th period since the high on 12-2-15 (another kumo time line). These time lines when together tend to produce reversals. A sharp move down could quickly exit the kumo in the 104.10 area which sees no support until 100.59 kijun support.
On the hourly chart look to see if the Kijun holds price at 105.66 the first line of support. followed quickly by the top of the flat kumo @ 103.25 A breach there could see prices test the 102.74 area. Further selling pressure could develop if the Daily kumo is broken bringing the cubes to the 100 area.
This trade would invalidate with a close above the Senkou-span @ 106.50
Should we enter this setup, our first take profit would be on a test of the Tenkan-line @ 103 and re-evaluate. Second exit would be near 100 provided price doesn't drift back into the kumo.
As always,
Trade responsibly and don't get greedy. Trading inside the kumo is not usually recommended. There really needs to be a sharp move here to be successful. Be mindful of the kumo top. A breach north of it could see substantial gains, before coming back.
ShirokiHeishi
Flat Kijun-sen tends to act as resistance both to price and Chikou-span.
Closed three days ago @105.83, hanging man
Closed two days ago @ 105.63, hanging man, hammer
Closed Friday @105.67, doji, spinning top. High of day touched and rejected by the Senkou-Span B a flat top attraction of Kumo trading.
Last three closes failed to break resistance @ 106.23 which is very close to a 50%(105.30) retrace of recent price action high from 12-2-15 to the low on 2-8-16
Thursday's close was the end of 17 periods (a kumo time line) as well as Friday's close being on the day before the 65th period since the high on 12-2-15 (another kumo time line). These time lines when together tend to produce reversals. A sharp move down could quickly exit the kumo in the 104.10 area which sees no support until 100.59 kijun support.
On the hourly chart look to see if the Kijun holds price at 105.66 the first line of support. followed quickly by the top of the flat kumo @ 103.25 A breach there could see prices test the 102.74 area. Further selling pressure could develop if the Daily kumo is broken bringing the cubes to the 100 area.
This trade would invalidate with a close above the Senkou-span @ 106.50
Should we enter this setup, our first take profit would be on a test of the Tenkan-line @ 103 and re-evaluate. Second exit would be near 100 provided price doesn't drift back into the kumo.
As always,
Trade responsibly and don't get greedy. Trading inside the kumo is not usually recommended. There really needs to be a sharp move here to be successful. Be mindful of the kumo top. A breach north of it could see substantial gains, before coming back.
ShirokiHeishi
Note
Yet another spinning top, this time we are actively looking at the short. NAS100 is down again tonight. We might see the break of the kumo in tomorrows trading. I am prepared. Will keep updatedNote
We broke the kijun-sen early on today (1hr charts) and it acted as resistance later in the day, hanging over the price line like a wet heavy blanket. This reversal may be setting up just fineNote
I am pretty sure today's close would be considered a grave-stone doji, but no matter what you call it it is bearish. Hourly has descended into the kumo while the daily is moving steadily south. Be patient and let this set-up come to youNote
Hope you stayed the course, still in the Kumo, despite all the turmoil the last 2 days. Up and down 1% and back again is not for the faint of heart. Waiting for the eventual exit of the kumo.Note
Whip-sawing someone to death if they tried to play this. Today(Fri), we had a possible rejection from the Senkou-span, suggesting the up move may lose steam here. Again, we are in the kumo, so there is no real play to be had. A definitive break above the Senkou-span will invalidate this trade idea.Order cancelled
With today's albeit slight close above Senkou-span, we are forced to re-evaluate our synopsis. This trade is nullified and we begin our reassessment process which starts with: Can we get a solid close above the kumo on the daily time frame? Hourly charts seem a bit extended and we may see a pullback to the Tenkan-sen (1hr), but that would only suggest a minor trip down. The Kumo saved us from a bad trade (once again) and we wait to respect the Kumo's boundary. Follow the new thread when I post, this one is done if we get a second close above the Kumo.
Happy Trading, ShirokiHeishi
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