Short

QQQ bulls vs bears

Updated

Here's a QQQ 6 month view of the bulls vs bears tug of war. In the past 6 months QQQ has been bullish for 2 months, bearish for 3 months and now a steep bullish reversal in November so far. Now that QQQ is hitting its YTD high today, the positioning setup has swung back in the bears favor, while bulls will keep trying to push QQQ higher. The market will run out of steam soon and there will be a pullback sooner than later. Until then, I expect the bulls to break its YTD high resistance temporarily and keep chasing QQQ to the moon, before a drop back down to reality.

I'm neither a bull or bear. I base my long or short observations on a risk : reward probability of positioning relative to extreme overbought or extreme oversold conditions. Starting today, now that QQQ is extremely overbought, I am posting QQQ as a short, that's all. It will take a few days for the short squeeze momentum to die down.

QQQ 6-month levels:
high = 388
fib50 = 364
low = 339

QQQ options data:
Exp Date Put/Call OI
2023-11-14 1.3942
2023-11-15 1.5967
2023-11-16 1.2773
2023-11-17 1.4869
2023-11-20 1.7913
2023-11-21 1.3943
2023-11-22 1.9927
2023-11-24 1.104
2023-11-27 3.095
2023-11-28 0
2023-12-01 1.1441
2023-12-08 1.2291
2023-12-15 1.702
2023-12-22 1.3033
2023-12-29 2.1385
2024-01-19 1.4726
2024-02-16 4.3575
2024-03-15 2.9284
2024-03-28 1.6141
2024-06-21 1.7381
2024-06-28 1.7177
2024-09-20 2.6355
2024-09-30 2.4466
2024-12-20 2.354
2025-01-17 1.9203
2025-06-20 1.6431
2025-12-19 2.725
2026-01-16 0.7724
2026-06-18 5.3892

Note

QQQ swing trade idea:
(duration 1-2 weeks)
short = 389
stop = 392
profit = 377

Note

*options use 100x leverage you could lose everything*

There are many types of options trading strategies and positions, simple to sophisticated & hybrids. I group them into theta, delta or mix strategies and bull, bear or neutral positions. There's a buy side and sell side to every trade. If you check the open interest (OI), you can see how liquid it is. Check how wide the bid vs ask spread is.

Theta:
iron condor
iron fly
covered call
cash secured put
calendar spread
collar

Delta:
call
put
straddle
strangle
vertical debit spread
vertical credit spread

Bull:
call
vertical put credit spread
vertical call debit spread
cash secured put

Bear:
put
vertical call credit spread
vertical put debit spread
covered call

Neutral:
straddle
strangle
iron condor
iron fly
collar (often used for downside insurance)
calendar spread (short or long time)

Options important variables:
Strike = share price
itm, atm, otm = strike position
Expiry = Date of expiration
Value = H, L & Mark
Liquidity = bid vs ask spread
Direction = put or call
OI = open interest
V = volume
IV = implied volatility
Delta = price
Theta = time
Vega = volatility
Gamma = momentum

Note

11/20/23 QQQ swing trade idea:
(duration 1-2 weeks)
short = 391
stop = 395
profit = 367

Note

11/20/23 P/E now:
NFLX 46
TSLA 75
NVDA 119
AAPL 31
MSFT 36
AMZN 76
GOOG 26
META 30
Average P/E = 55

Note

11/21/23 8x update:

Options360

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tradingview.com/u/Options360/

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