Trade idea
Trigger: SPX, RUT, Trump winning the elections
Opening Sustainable Momentum 🧑🏻🚀
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
- Fundamentals
- This is a Trump trade, based on his agenda. Solar part of the clean energy sector will see a shift towards traditional energy sources like oil.
Bad Earnings - RUN had bad earnings with a quarterly loss of -$0.37 vs previous earnings of +$0.55.
- The solar energy products distributor posted revenue of $537.2 million in the period, which also fell short of Street forecasts. Ten analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $560.6 million.
Technicals - Price opened with momentum, breaking out and creating new lows.
Risks - Opening momentum candle's ADR is 15.97%, ADR for the stock is 7.61%. After two days of deep drops, price could be over extended and result in it retracing.
Trigger: SPX, RUT, Trump winning the elections
Opening Sustainable Momentum 🧑🏻🚀
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
Trade active
14 Nov 11:53PM SGTAt this point, given the bear confluence on the RUT and SPX I will continue to hold this trade even through my early exit rules indicate I should close the trade.
If the Trump rally fades with the entire market, we should see all stock drop at least momentary. Position wise RUN has also not broken above 0.5Fib.
Trade closed: stop reached
14 Nov exit- This trade hit our SL and closed. Starting at 12.30am price just kept steadily rising
- Other solar stocks moving in a similar upwards pattern.
- In contrast RUT and SPX continued dropping.
- If I picked ENPH or SEDG I would have had a chance at +2R they were also on the second leg of their gap down. As such while the hypothesis was right, I just selected the wrong solar stock that despite bad earnings still held on and did not drop further because Truist analysts price targets released on the 12 Nov was $12 (above the price I bought).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.