Sensex Expiry Analysis – 7th January 2025
Sensex Expiry Analysis – 7th January 2025
Market Sentiment:
Overall Bias: Slightly bearish with range-bound possibilities unless a breakout/breakdown occurs.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels: 78,000 (Immediate), 78,400 (Major).
Support Levels: 77,400 (Immediate), 77,200 (Critical).
Rationale for the Trade Setups:
Intraday Sell Setup:
A breakdown below 77,400 will trigger selling pressure, with targets at 77,200 and 77,000 due to high put writing and liquidity below.
Confidence Level: High, supported by FII/DII bearish positions and price action.
Intraday Buy Setup:
A breakout above 78,000 may trigger a gamma squeeze, with rapid movement toward 78,400 and 78,500 due to unwinding of call positions.
Confidence Level: Moderate, requires confirmation with volume.
Key Observations:
Option Chain Analysis:
Strong call writing at 78,000, making it a crucial resistance.
Heavy put writing at 77,400, indicating immediate support.
Implied Volatility (IV):
Slight increase (+2%), indicating expectations of higher volatility.
Gamma Squeeze Potential:
Above 78,000: Possible sharp upside move to 78,500.
Below 77,200: Potential downside acceleration to 77,000.
Execution Plan:
Buy Above 78,000: Wait for a 15-minute candle close above 78,000 with volume confirmation.
Sell Below 77,400: Enter on a clear breakdown below 77,400 with strong momentum.
Additional Notes:
Maintain tight stop-losses due to expiry-day volatility.
FIIs are net bearish in index futures; this reinforces the downside bias.
Range-bound expiry is possible if the index remains between 77,400-78,000.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or trading advice.Please consult with a certified financial advisor and use your discretion before making any trading decisions.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.