25% sell Shell and buy BP
BP and Shell move together and BP has already lead the way lower
If Shell moves back to relative parity there is a 25% poss move
Shell moves back to EMA 200
Shell moves back to 0.618 fib retracement of prior move
This could be start of much larger move lower
Most MSM are claiming inflation trade that oil will move higher but TA price chart shows breaking out of a wedge lower
Shell just broke it trendline support
Good luck no matter which way the market moves if these prices come back to parity over maybe quick snap back or longer term 3-6 months you can pick up 25%
With Sept here and markets closer to top than bottom it safer as your money is hedged
BP triple top at 500
Shel topped out at approx 3000 round number
As both of these moved up hugely over past few years on back of oil price if their prices break the 200 EMA then the banks and other market holders may sell and get out of the long term trend ie bank their profits which could cause swift market moves
USA numbers are weaker than expected, also if the Fed cuts and markets tank following fed announcement which is lead by the bond market which is already lowerer. So it all points to lower shell price.
Also Trump promised to reduce the cost of energy for USA so he wants lower oil prices to reduce the cost of manufacture of goods in USA to make them more competitive
Also with JPYUSD the last time the carry trade got into trouble was due largely in part of the high oil price. Which caused liquidity crisis, hence as they central banks are buying now due to the past months JPYUSD mess up. Historically having a lower oil price helps the JPYUSD situation.
Plus ATM Dollar is strong and emerging markets are relatively weak so having lower oil price may result as Dollar weakens and the emerging markets strengthen over the next couple of years.
I am not so sure retail knows how to hedge any more ? well I am not so sure todays hedge fund mngrs know how to hedge any more they just buy everything and get paid their commissions.
Works fine until theres another liquidity crisis and we are at biblical sentiment indicators so there is a lot of risk out there.
BP / Shell as a pair dont get stretched much apart historically if you have a lot of money and can just sit there with 6,7,8.9,10 figure accounts I think you will do well with this approach
hey we could have banked it together and slept soundly at night! and traded from anywhere in the world with not so much urgency to sit in front of a screen 24/7 - that is this strategy
If Shell moves back to relative parity there is a 25% poss move
Shell moves back to EMA 200
Shell moves back to 0.618 fib retracement of prior move
This could be start of much larger move lower
Most MSM are claiming inflation trade that oil will move higher but TA price chart shows breaking out of a wedge lower
Shell just broke it trendline support
Good luck no matter which way the market moves if these prices come back to parity over maybe quick snap back or longer term 3-6 months you can pick up 25%
With Sept here and markets closer to top than bottom it safer as your money is hedged
BP triple top at 500
Shel topped out at approx 3000 round number
As both of these moved up hugely over past few years on back of oil price if their prices break the 200 EMA then the banks and other market holders may sell and get out of the long term trend ie bank their profits which could cause swift market moves
USA numbers are weaker than expected, also if the Fed cuts and markets tank following fed announcement which is lead by the bond market which is already lowerer. So it all points to lower shell price.
Also Trump promised to reduce the cost of energy for USA so he wants lower oil prices to reduce the cost of manufacture of goods in USA to make them more competitive
Also with JPYUSD the last time the carry trade got into trouble was due largely in part of the high oil price. Which caused liquidity crisis, hence as they central banks are buying now due to the past months JPYUSD mess up. Historically having a lower oil price helps the JPYUSD situation.
Plus ATM Dollar is strong and emerging markets are relatively weak so having lower oil price may result as Dollar weakens and the emerging markets strengthen over the next couple of years.
I am not so sure retail knows how to hedge any more ? well I am not so sure todays hedge fund mngrs know how to hedge any more they just buy everything and get paid their commissions.
Works fine until theres another liquidity crisis and we are at biblical sentiment indicators so there is a lot of risk out there.
BP / Shell as a pair dont get stretched much apart historically if you have a lot of money and can just sit there with 6,7,8.9,10 figure accounts I think you will do well with this approach
hey we could have banked it together and slept soundly at night! and traded from anywhere in the world with not so much urgency to sit in front of a screen 24/7 - that is this strategy
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