Shiba, 23 Dec. The 54-Day Bullflag.
SHIB has been in a waterfall to the downside since 27 Oct, losing about -67% of its value - a very typical correction in crypto land. Understandably, many will short the current breakout, but is it the right decision?
Elliott:
It is difficult to get a clean count, but we are able to interpret it as an abc correction with 5 sub-waves in wave c (in green). Shib has retraced exactly 38.2% of the previous wave.
Oscillators:
The MACD crossover has occurred and the MFI is pointing upwards after a bullish divergence.
Geometry:
A Schiff pitchfork from the low of 7 Sep. appears to be well respected by price action and indicates a possible low on 20 Dec.
Moving Averages:
The important 20 week MA provides support.
How I trade it:
The idea is to build long exposure in case our bullish assumption is correct. First targets are at 7000, the pitchfork median. Because a wave 1 usually retraces 60-78%, the idea remains valid unless Shib falls below 3000. Shiba did not have a capitulation candle that triggers buy liquidity. This can still happen, although BTC/ETH had their capitulation in the hours of the lunar eclipse on 4 December.
Elliott:
It is difficult to get a clean count, but we are able to interpret it as an abc correction with 5 sub-waves in wave c (in green). Shib has retraced exactly 38.2% of the previous wave.
Oscillators:
The MACD crossover has occurred and the MFI is pointing upwards after a bullish divergence.
Geometry:
A Schiff pitchfork from the low of 7 Sep. appears to be well respected by price action and indicates a possible low on 20 Dec.
Moving Averages:
The important 20 week MA provides support.
How I trade it:
The idea is to build long exposure in case our bullish assumption is correct. First targets are at 7000, the pitchfork median. Because a wave 1 usually retraces 60-78%, the idea remains valid unless Shib falls below 3000. Shiba did not have a capitulation candle that triggers buy liquidity. This can still happen, although BTC/ETH had their capitulation in the hours of the lunar eclipse on 4 December.
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