50 Year Chart of Silver - Two Major Bullish Patterns Developing
Updated
Scroll below for My background on silver and three things I learned:
You're looking at a quarterly chart representing silver's price history since 1970.
A) I'm seeing two bullish chart patterns developing:
1) Ascending triangle
2) Cup and handle
B) Significant break of structure:
The light blue rectangle highlights how significant $18 - $20 has been in the last decade+. This is why last quarter's breakout was huge.
Now here's where the 50 quarter moving average and the 21 quarter moving average are crossing:
It's also the .618 retracement from the March 2020 low to the recent peak in July:
Some background:
I have a long history with silver. It was my best trade in 2011, and also my first big winner along with uranium mining stocks in the same period. Winning that trade is what really got me obsessed with markets. I became attached to commodity markets because that's where I saw some success. But I stopped doing well for the next few years (2012 - 2015). Then in November 2015 I started buying Bitcoin. After BTC's big run, whatever confidence I lost in being a trader was restored.
Three things I learned:
1) Becoming attached to any single market gets you emotional and blinds you of other opportunities.
2) Know your time frame of your analysis and respect it.
3) Long time horizon set-ups have the highest probability, but require the most patience.
Here's my analysis on the USD in 2016. If weakness in the dollar is about halfway into its cycle, the final half may be the catalyst:
And here's my last long term analysis on silver in March 2018:
- Thanks for reading
You're looking at a quarterly chart representing silver's price history since 1970.
A) I'm seeing two bullish chart patterns developing:
1) Ascending triangle
2) Cup and handle
B) Significant break of structure:
The light blue rectangle highlights how significant $18 - $20 has been in the last decade+. This is why last quarter's breakout was huge.
- Local peak in January 2008
- Major breakout point in July 2010 before reaching new all time highs
- Key resistance for 6 years (2014 - 2020).
- Breakout in 2020.
Now here's where the 50 quarter moving average and the 21 quarter moving average are crossing:
It's also the .618 retracement from the March 2020 low to the recent peak in July:
Some background:
I have a long history with silver. It was my best trade in 2011, and also my first big winner along with uranium mining stocks in the same period. Winning that trade is what really got me obsessed with markets. I became attached to commodity markets because that's where I saw some success. But I stopped doing well for the next few years (2012 - 2015). Then in November 2015 I started buying Bitcoin. After BTC's big run, whatever confidence I lost in being a trader was restored.
Three things I learned:
1) Becoming attached to any single market gets you emotional and blinds you of other opportunities.
2) Know your time frame of your analysis and respect it.
3) Long time horizon set-ups have the highest probability, but require the most patience.
Here's my analysis on the USD in 2016. If weakness in the dollar is about halfway into its cycle, the final half may be the catalyst:
And here's my last long term analysis on silver in March 2018:
- Thanks for reading
Note
Precious metals are seasonally very strong in Dec - Jan. We could very well see prices extend from here. I am long SLV calls
Note
Broken above 26, any retest of the lower 26 handle should be bought or an add spot:Note
Looking good on the hourly. Rounding up.. Needs a close above 27 to go. I remain long SLV calls:Note
27.55 is now the key spot:Note
big rejection at the 27.55 spot:
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