SMCI Daily Chart Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025)
1. Key Observations from the Chart:
• Recent Bounce Off Support: SMCI has rebounded from a key support level around $30.30 and is attempting to hold above its ascending channel.
• Major Support & Resistance Levels Identified:
• Resistance Levels:
• $39.84 – Immediate resistance; must break for upside movement.
• $45.29 – Strong resistance; previous rejection area.
• $48.98 - $63.05 – Major resistance zone; unlikely to be tested tomorrow unless a major rally occurs.
• Support Levels:
• $39.08 – Currently being tested; a break below could push SMCI lower.
• $30.30 – Major long-term support if $39 fails.
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2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns
• Short-Term Uptrend Still Intact: SMCI is trading in a rising channel, but a breakdown could lead to a test of lower levels.
• Moving Averages Acting as Resistance: The 200-day EMA around $40.32 is acting as a key resistance zone.
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3. Indicator Analysis
Stochastic RSI (Middle Panel - Momentum Indicator)
• Currently near neutral levels (~47.78), suggesting room for movement in either direction.
• No confirmed bullish crossover yet, meaning upside momentum is still weak.
MACD (Bottom Panel - Trend & Momentum)
• Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed:
• MACD histogram is slightly negative, signaling weak selling momentum.
• A bullish crossover could indicate a shift in trend.
1. Key Observations from the Chart:
• Recent Bounce Off Support: SMCI has rebounded from a key support level around $30.30 and is attempting to hold above its ascending channel.
• Major Support & Resistance Levels Identified:
• Resistance Levels:
• $39.84 – Immediate resistance; must break for upside movement.
• $45.29 – Strong resistance; previous rejection area.
• $48.98 - $63.05 – Major resistance zone; unlikely to be tested tomorrow unless a major rally occurs.
• Support Levels:
• $39.08 – Currently being tested; a break below could push SMCI lower.
• $30.30 – Major long-term support if $39 fails.
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2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns
• Short-Term Uptrend Still Intact: SMCI is trading in a rising channel, but a breakdown could lead to a test of lower levels.
• Moving Averages Acting as Resistance: The 200-day EMA around $40.32 is acting as a key resistance zone.
⸻
3. Indicator Analysis
Stochastic RSI (Middle Panel - Momentum Indicator)
• Currently near neutral levels (~47.78), suggesting room for movement in either direction.
• No confirmed bullish crossover yet, meaning upside momentum is still weak.
MACD (Bottom Panel - Trend & Momentum)
• Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed:
• MACD histogram is slightly negative, signaling weak selling momentum.
• A bullish crossover could indicate a shift in trend.
Trade active
4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025)🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMCI Holds $39 & Breaks Above $40.32 - $39.84)
• Trigger: SMCI bounces off $39.08 and breaks $39.84 with strength
• Target 1: $45.29
• Target 2: $48.98
• Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume).
🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMCI Breaks Below $39.08 & Momentum Continues)
• Trigger: SMCI falls under $39.08 and holds below
• Target 1: $30.30
• Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside).
Note
Options Trading Strategies for SMCI🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMCI Holds $39 & Breaks Above $40.32 - $39.84)
1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMCI $42 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMCI breaks above $39.84 and holds
• Exit Target: $45.29
• Stop-Loss: If SMCI falls back below $39.08
2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk)
• Buy SMCI $40 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMCI $45 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMCI closes above $45
3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMCI $39 Put
• Buy SMCI $35 Put
• Profit if SMCI stays above $39
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🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMCI Breaks Below $39.08 & Moves Toward $30.30)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMCI $35 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMCI breaks below $39.08
• Exit Target: $30.30
• Stop-Loss: If SMCI reclaims $40.32
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy SMCI $38 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMCI $33 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMCI closes below $33
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMCI $42 Call
• Buy SMCI $45 Call
• Profit if SMCI stays below $42
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5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMCI Tomorrow?
• If SMCI Holds $39 & Reclaims $40.32 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads
• If SMCI Breaks Below $39 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads
• If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.