SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025)
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1. Key Observations from the Chart
✅ Major Trendline Break
• SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase.
• The last time a similar break happened, a deeper correction followed before stabilizing.
✅ Key Support & Resistance Levels
• Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
• $222.79 - $231.15 → Former support, now resistance zone.
• $237.13 → Stronger resistance, where price previously rejected.
• $242.32 → Major resistance, unlikely to be tested soon unless momentum shifts bullish.
• Support Levels (Downside Risks)
• $219.55 → Current support being tested. If it breaks, expect more downside.
• $213.57 → Next key support level.
• Below $213.57, further downside to ~$200 could be likely.
✅ Moving Averages Acting as Resistance
• The 200-day EMA was broken & rejected, a strong bearish signal.
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2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns
• Trend Breakdown: The long-term uptrend is broken, and price is trading under major EMAs.
• Bearish Continuation Likely: If SMH fails to reclaim resistance, it could fall toward $213.57 or lower.
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3. Indicator Analysis
📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel)
• Currently at 38.96, showing some attempt at stabilization but no confirmed bullish crossover.
• Could still move lower before a true oversold bounce.
📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel)
• Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed → MACD histogram turning deeply negative, showing strong downside momentum.
• No signs of reversal yet.
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4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025)
🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79)
• Trigger: If SMH bounces off $219.55 and breaks $222.79
• Target 1: $231.15
• Target 2: $237.13
• Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume).
🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Momentum Continues)
• Trigger: If SMH falls under $219.55 and stays below
• Target 1: $213.57
• Target 2: $200.00 (if selling accelerates)
• Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside).
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Options Trading Strategies for SMH
🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Breaks Above $222.79)
1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMH $225 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMH breaks above $222.79 and holds
• Exit Target: $231.15
• Stop-Loss: If SMH falls back below $219.
2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk)
• Buy SMH $220 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMH $230 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMH closes above $230
3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMH $220 Put
• Buy SMH $215 Put
• Profit if SMH stays above $220
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🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Moves Toward $213.57)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMH $215 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMH breaks below $219.55
• Exit Target: $213.57
• Stop-Loss: If SMH reclaims $222.
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy SMH $220 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMH $210 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMH closes below $210
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMH $230 Call
• Buy SMH $235 Call
• Profit if SMH stays below $230
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5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMH Tomorrow?
• If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads
• If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads
• If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
⸻
1. Key Observations from the Chart
✅ Major Trendline Break
• SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase.
• The last time a similar break happened, a deeper correction followed before stabilizing.
✅ Key Support & Resistance Levels
• Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
• $222.79 - $231.15 → Former support, now resistance zone.
• $237.13 → Stronger resistance, where price previously rejected.
• $242.32 → Major resistance, unlikely to be tested soon unless momentum shifts bullish.
• Support Levels (Downside Risks)
• $219.55 → Current support being tested. If it breaks, expect more downside.
• $213.57 → Next key support level.
• Below $213.57, further downside to ~$200 could be likely.
✅ Moving Averages Acting as Resistance
• The 200-day EMA was broken & rejected, a strong bearish signal.
⸻
2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns
• Trend Breakdown: The long-term uptrend is broken, and price is trading under major EMAs.
• Bearish Continuation Likely: If SMH fails to reclaim resistance, it could fall toward $213.57 or lower.
⸻
3. Indicator Analysis
📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel)
• Currently at 38.96, showing some attempt at stabilization but no confirmed bullish crossover.
• Could still move lower before a true oversold bounce.
📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel)
• Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed → MACD histogram turning deeply negative, showing strong downside momentum.
• No signs of reversal yet.
⸻
4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025)
🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79)
• Trigger: If SMH bounces off $219.55 and breaks $222.79
• Target 1: $231.15
• Target 2: $237.13
• Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume).
🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Momentum Continues)
• Trigger: If SMH falls under $219.55 and stays below
• Target 1: $213.57
• Target 2: $200.00 (if selling accelerates)
• Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside).
⸻
Options Trading Strategies for SMH
🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Breaks Above $222.79)
1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMH $225 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMH breaks above $222.79 and holds
• Exit Target: $231.15
• Stop-Loss: If SMH falls back below $219.
2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk)
• Buy SMH $220 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMH $230 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMH closes above $230
3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMH $220 Put
• Buy SMH $215 Put
• Profit if SMH stays above $220
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🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Moves Toward $213.57)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy SMH $215 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SMH breaks below $219.55
• Exit Target: $213.57
• Stop-Loss: If SMH reclaims $222.
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy SMH $220 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SMH $210 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if SMH closes below $210
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SMH $230 Call
• Buy SMH $235 Call
• Profit if SMH stays below $230
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5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMH Tomorrow?
• If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads
• If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads
• If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.