Thesis:
D1 and h4 in downtrending giving strong short bias
Idea is to short into supply zone (lead to MSB & large move up, although upon returning it gave a weak bounce signifying the level isn't as strong) & rejection of h4 trend as confluence. Target is a demand zone that lead to a. 24% move, didn't spend much time there (less orders got filled) & also lead to reclaim of the h4 trend & MSB very strong level. Stop loss is reclaim of h4 trend & MSB of higher high.
Instinct: Consolidations after downtrending moves usually signal continuation & treated more as a hedge for BTC as opposed to a trade to make money
Supply zone strength:
- Lead to MSB & large move up
- Time didnt spend much time at level.
- Has another extra layer above it for protection for my stop
Weaknesses:
Price did not give a good bounce from here suggesting a lot of the liqudity here is already used up, people who went short before likely got squeezed on the move up hence not providing much pressure to fuel the bounce by closing their orders.
Demand zone strength:
- Demand zone has not been tested recently
- Demand zone lead to a huge move up & MSB break
- Demand zone did spend much time there, lots of potential liqudity left
I think price will go there because of the many wicks that lead to the move up to the highs, a signal to me that buyers have been exhausted at those levels.