Solana, the best and the worse cases
Toward November 2023 #Solana exploded from ~$20 all the way to ~$210 in March 2024
Using simple Fib #retracement we should have come back to about $115 ... and we did, on August 2024
So we are now in a bullish descending triangle.
Best case:
Green line, we keep going up over the next 2 or 3 weeks and break out past $170 in the middle of next month.
There is a strong area of #resistance around $165 so breaking past that would be quite #bullish.
Likely case:
Blue line, we keep going up over the next 2 weeks and we bounce back at the area of resistance, ~$165 and we go back down to the support around $130 and we then go back up to eventually breakout sometimes next year.
Worse case:
Red line, again, we keep going up over the next 2 weeks and we bounce back at the area of resistance, ~$165 and we go back down ... but we break past $130 and we go back down to $120, (0.5 fib retracement).
Plan
Enter: Now
SL: $129
Target: anything past $500 (remember this is weekly chart, not 5 minutes)
Look out for trend reversal around $162 ... and close your trade if we break trend as it would be the likely case.
Note that FTX will be refunding some/all of the holders toward the beginning of October, but they will be refunded in US Dollar, so they are very likely to use their money to buy back Crypto, (they were traders afterall and they are well aware of the upcoming bull market).
Using simple Fib #retracement we should have come back to about $115 ... and we did, on August 2024
So we are now in a bullish descending triangle.
Best case:
Green line, we keep going up over the next 2 or 3 weeks and break out past $170 in the middle of next month.
There is a strong area of #resistance around $165 so breaking past that would be quite #bullish.
Likely case:
Blue line, we keep going up over the next 2 weeks and we bounce back at the area of resistance, ~$165 and we go back down to the support around $130 and we then go back up to eventually breakout sometimes next year.
Worse case:
Red line, again, we keep going up over the next 2 weeks and we bounce back at the area of resistance, ~$165 and we go back down ... but we break past $130 and we go back down to $120, (0.5 fib retracement).
Plan
Enter: Now
SL: $129
Target: anything past $500 (remember this is weekly chart, not 5 minutes)
Look out for trend reversal around $162 ... and close your trade if we break trend as it would be the likely case.
Note that FTX will be refunding some/all of the holders toward the beginning of October, but they will be refunded in US Dollar, so they are very likely to use their money to buy back Crypto, (they were traders afterall and they are well aware of the upcoming bull market).
Note
Solan seems to be taking the green path ... but I don't want to celebrate until after the FOMC meeting (6th and 7th) and the US election (5th).
Basically, next week will be make or break for either the Blue or Green line ... I think the red is now unlikely, (more of a black swan event).
Trade active
Green line it is then ...
Target is now to sit on the trade and wait for anything past $500...
Stop loss will be update to remain well in profit zone while giving room for the inevitable pullbacks along the way, (mine is currently ast $170).
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.