Long
SPFR; 3D printing my own rocket to the stars
DISCLAIMER
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. I am obviously not rich, so obviously I haven't made it with my own thinking, so definitely don't put faith in me. But maybe read and learn some things about a company that might just 3D print you your rocket ship to the stars.
Thesis
This is easy and brief: Velo3D is a pioneer and the industry leader in 3D printing metal. They allow for support free metal printing of complex parts, making it cheaper, easier and better in designing the future. Velo3D claims itself 5+ years ahead of the competition, and from brief research of competing 3D metal printing companies, it is safe to assume that was true. It is likely that others will catch up, or just corporate espionage itself up to that point, but it is the research and engineering team behind those 5 years of developmental lead that you invest in. In the long term, Velo3D offers itself to be the industry leader for one of the largest growing manufacturing methods. In the short term, Velo3D offers itself to be the industry leader for something new and exciting, which means its got buzz and chatter and excitement. I view this as a great long-term play, backed by ARKX and Serena Williams, the second best Williams twin, and a successful SPAC monster whos name is likely to grow further than SPAC-twitterlord Chamath Palihapitiya.
JAWS Spitfire
JAWS Spitfire can be analyzed in 2 ways; by JAWS the SPAC corp, and Barry Sternlicht, it's founder.
Barry looks amazing on paper; son of a holocaust survivor, parents worked decent middle class jobs, graduates magna cum laude from Brown, MBA from Harvard, built a real estate acquisition firm at 31, built a massive hotel chain, acquired many other hotel brands, does a ton of philanthropy, serving on a ton of boards of philanthropies (including Robin Hood Foundation, not Robinhood-affiliated at all). There isn't much to say here that could make him look bad; the man has built an empire. Politically, he has been involved with Republican and Democratic campaigns, touted his friendship with Trump, but donated to Obama and Hilary's campaign, claims he is a Republican, so he's probably just another rich asshole who doesn't want to pay his fair share in taxes. All that philanthropy and charitable donations would not compare to the amount of taxes he would pay in a more liberal government. I can also see that this isn't just a past time for Barry, he likes doing this. He is Chairman for every JAWS SPAC, and has 6 JAWS companies as of 3/30/21, with 3 still to be announced (Hurricane, Juggernaut and Wildcat). secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=14838226&RcvdDate=3/30/2021&CoName=JAWS SPITFIRE ACQUISITION CORP&FormType=10-K&View=html
As for JAWS Capital, his in house SPAC group, here's what they've done:
So it ain't much, and it ain't pretty. But that is the whole thing with SPACs, you are investing in a persons idea. I think Velo3D and Cano are great ideas, so maybe JWSM will be worth an investment in the future too.
The final note on Spitfire, is of its board member Serena Williams. This IPO got a lot of press because of her, and as a small, small, small owner of Class B, she will be visible in the upcoming transition, garnering a lot of publicity.
Velo3D
It is going to be hard for me to not gush about what this company does. Barring specific industrial or technological components that experts might disfavour, I love the implications of support free metal 3D printing. Just scroll through their investor presentation:
velo3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Velo3D-Investor-Presentation-March-2021.pdf
They 3D print the Raptor engine. I cannot comprehend the limitations facing our scientists and engineers with modern production requirements. The fact that this company solved it and are capable of 3D printing rocket engines is absolutely insane.
YOU WOULDN'T DOWNLOAD A CAR WOULD YOU? No, I am going to download a freaking rocket.
In a 7'x8' box, this baby will 3D print you anything in Titanium64, INCONEL alloy 718, Aluminum F357, and HASTEALLOY X in smooth to smooooother. I could barrage you with useful things I learnt in metal smoothness and 3D metal manufacturing competitors and different metal alloys, but half of it would be wrong and the other half just isn't fun. I think the best way to tell you Velo3D is better than anyone else is their work for SpaceX. I don't care how you feel about Elon Musk or his aberrations, but SpaceX is the number one space company. From my research I can surmise that this prints smooth (5 um SA smooth), but post-printing finishing is likely necessary for any high performance piece, so 3D printing a rocket becomes a little more obnoxious.
Still, the idea of being able to design and then 3D print anything I want in 4 flavours of metal seems like the sort of rich eccentric flair I could fall for. I believe 3D printing is the future for everything, meats for food, meats for organ replacement, metals, plastics, food, everything. It is the closest thing to picturing something in your mind's eye and making it real. Velo3D does appear to be at the forefront of this field in large metal constructs, with the possibility of expanding the tech in scale either way. This technology will be critical, not just in manufacturing, but in the design sphere of engineering. Being able to 3D print an active design in your own lab will propel research at an extravagant rate. If I were to start a colony on Mars or the Moon, or even just in space, I would definitely want to buy a bunch of these to make it happen, and bring a bunch of these with me, which is probably why ARKX and Cathie Wood keep buying this.
So Velo3D gets a strong rating from me; defining industrial research, breakthrough product for all industry spheres, makes cool rockets possible.
The Stock Fundamentals
When the SPFR-Velo3D deal goes through in 2nd half of 2021, they list as VLD and existing shareholders will own ~21% of shares of VLD, which means at 10/share and 34 million shares, SPFR has a valuation of $340 mil and VLD will have a $1.6 billion valuation.
finance.yahoo.com/news/velo3d-leader-rapidly-growing-high-110000468.html
bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2021/03/24/velo3d-to-go-public-with-serena-williams-spac.html
halpersadeh.com/actions/jaws-spitfire-acquisition-stock-merger-spfr/
According to recent SEC filings (10-K) + whalewisdom.com/stock/spfr, about 35% of the float is owned by various investment groups. One of those is Citadel with a 3/23/21 data for 2.3 million shares, which is an issue as I am under the genuine belief Citadel will not be around for too much longer, so short term there might be a great opening.
ARK owns about 760k as of 4/30/21, so its really unclear where the rest of the float is, but my guess is a mix of small funds mirroring ARK, combined with a bunch of retail and small investors.
Valuations of VLD is difficult, and I won't go into that, but with their own estimates of growth mixed with SpaceX growth demands, it is safe to assume they have a great future. The question ultimately ends up becoming, what is the fair value of it right now. I have literally no ability to price this, I have no skills in this sort of sphere, but what I can tell you is that ARK values it at 10/share becoming a good buy opportunity. Needless to say ARK also bought Tesla with a massive 1 month profit turn-around, so they know what they are doing. I would suggest a $1.6-2 billion market valuation of VLD being reasonable in the short term, with that likely to grow viciously. If you can enter around that $10 line, than you would be mimicking Cathie Wood, which is not a bad thing to do historically speaking.
They claim profitability by 2023, but I wouldn't be surprised, nor affected, by a push in either direction sooner. What is most important is their list of customers (pg 17 of velo3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Velo3D-Investor-Presentation-March-2021.pdf). Most of these are making general purchases across the industry, but if Velo has what they claim to have, and what they have shown to have, they could quickly take the market, poising them for long term growth for a 401k.
DISCLAIMER
I am going to be real honest with you; congratulations for getting to the end. Thank you for your time, I hope it was worth it. If you have any suggestions, I would love to hear it. Please don’t make an investment decision on my information alone, always double check. I am not a financial analyst, I do not get paid to write any of this, and I do not currently (4/30/21) have an investment in SPFR or it's stock price. Thanks.
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. I am obviously not rich, so obviously I haven't made it with my own thinking, so definitely don't put faith in me. But maybe read and learn some things about a company that might just 3D print you your rocket ship to the stars.
Thesis
This is easy and brief: Velo3D is a pioneer and the industry leader in 3D printing metal. They allow for support free metal printing of complex parts, making it cheaper, easier and better in designing the future. Velo3D claims itself 5+ years ahead of the competition, and from brief research of competing 3D metal printing companies, it is safe to assume that was true. It is likely that others will catch up, or just corporate espionage itself up to that point, but it is the research and engineering team behind those 5 years of developmental lead that you invest in. In the long term, Velo3D offers itself to be the industry leader for one of the largest growing manufacturing methods. In the short term, Velo3D offers itself to be the industry leader for something new and exciting, which means its got buzz and chatter and excitement. I view this as a great long-term play, backed by ARKX and Serena Williams, the second best Williams twin, and a successful SPAC monster whos name is likely to grow further than SPAC-twitterlord Chamath Palihapitiya.
JAWS Spitfire
JAWS Spitfire can be analyzed in 2 ways; by JAWS the SPAC corp, and Barry Sternlicht, it's founder.
Barry looks amazing on paper; son of a holocaust survivor, parents worked decent middle class jobs, graduates magna cum laude from Brown, MBA from Harvard, built a real estate acquisition firm at 31, built a massive hotel chain, acquired many other hotel brands, does a ton of philanthropy, serving on a ton of boards of philanthropies (including Robin Hood Foundation, not Robinhood-affiliated at all). There isn't much to say here that could make him look bad; the man has built an empire. Politically, he has been involved with Republican and Democratic campaigns, touted his friendship with Trump, but donated to Obama and Hilary's campaign, claims he is a Republican, so he's probably just another rich asshole who doesn't want to pay his fair share in taxes. All that philanthropy and charitable donations would not compare to the amount of taxes he would pay in a more liberal government. I can also see that this isn't just a past time for Barry, he likes doing this. He is Chairman for every JAWS SPAC, and has 6 JAWS companies as of 3/30/21, with 3 still to be announced (Hurricane, Juggernaut and Wildcat). secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=14838226&RcvdDate=3/30/2021&CoName=JAWS SPITFIRE ACQUISITION CORP&FormType=10-K&View=html
As for JAWS Capital, his in house SPAC group, here's what they've done:
- JWS - Cano Health - Ok, this is a fascinating company from cursory research. They do senior care, but work as the point of contact for the entirety of senior care needs, including medical, assisted living, caretakers, the whole thing. This seems like a competitor to Clover, but this one has attracted better attention from Humana and Medicare, but this industry is crowded (and with a growing elderly population and a dramatically growing market capitalization for senior health on the private and public side - thanks Biden). It remains to be seen if all of these will take off, but with Cano having Florida covered, I imagine this one is primed to take over. With that said, the way SPACs work with share transfer remains a major component for finding value investments.
- JWSM - Jaws Mustang - $900 million IPO currently at $1.3 billion (4.30.21). With literally no inkling of what this one will acquire, it just keeps raising money.
So it ain't much, and it ain't pretty. But that is the whole thing with SPACs, you are investing in a persons idea. I think Velo3D and Cano are great ideas, so maybe JWSM will be worth an investment in the future too.
The final note on Spitfire, is of its board member Serena Williams. This IPO got a lot of press because of her, and as a small, small, small owner of Class B, she will be visible in the upcoming transition, garnering a lot of publicity.
Velo3D
It is going to be hard for me to not gush about what this company does. Barring specific industrial or technological components that experts might disfavour, I love the implications of support free metal 3D printing. Just scroll through their investor presentation:
velo3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Velo3D-Investor-Presentation-March-2021.pdf
They 3D print the Raptor engine. I cannot comprehend the limitations facing our scientists and engineers with modern production requirements. The fact that this company solved it and are capable of 3D printing rocket engines is absolutely insane.
YOU WOULDN'T DOWNLOAD A CAR WOULD YOU? No, I am going to download a freaking rocket.
In a 7'x8' box, this baby will 3D print you anything in Titanium64, INCONEL alloy 718, Aluminum F357, and HASTEALLOY X in smooth to smooooother. I could barrage you with useful things I learnt in metal smoothness and 3D metal manufacturing competitors and different metal alloys, but half of it would be wrong and the other half just isn't fun. I think the best way to tell you Velo3D is better than anyone else is their work for SpaceX. I don't care how you feel about Elon Musk or his aberrations, but SpaceX is the number one space company. From my research I can surmise that this prints smooth (5 um SA smooth), but post-printing finishing is likely necessary for any high performance piece, so 3D printing a rocket becomes a little more obnoxious.
Still, the idea of being able to design and then 3D print anything I want in 4 flavours of metal seems like the sort of rich eccentric flair I could fall for. I believe 3D printing is the future for everything, meats for food, meats for organ replacement, metals, plastics, food, everything. It is the closest thing to picturing something in your mind's eye and making it real. Velo3D does appear to be at the forefront of this field in large metal constructs, with the possibility of expanding the tech in scale either way. This technology will be critical, not just in manufacturing, but in the design sphere of engineering. Being able to 3D print an active design in your own lab will propel research at an extravagant rate. If I were to start a colony on Mars or the Moon, or even just in space, I would definitely want to buy a bunch of these to make it happen, and bring a bunch of these with me, which is probably why ARKX and Cathie Wood keep buying this.
So Velo3D gets a strong rating from me; defining industrial research, breakthrough product for all industry spheres, makes cool rockets possible.
The Stock Fundamentals
When the SPFR-Velo3D deal goes through in 2nd half of 2021, they list as VLD and existing shareholders will own ~21% of shares of VLD, which means at 10/share and 34 million shares, SPFR has a valuation of $340 mil and VLD will have a $1.6 billion valuation.
finance.yahoo.com/news/velo3d-leader-rapidly-growing-high-110000468.html
bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2021/03/24/velo3d-to-go-public-with-serena-williams-spac.html
halpersadeh.com/actions/jaws-spitfire-acquisition-stock-merger-spfr/
According to recent SEC filings (10-K) + whalewisdom.com/stock/spfr, about 35% of the float is owned by various investment groups. One of those is Citadel with a 3/23/21 data for 2.3 million shares, which is an issue as I am under the genuine belief Citadel will not be around for too much longer, so short term there might be a great opening.
ARK owns about 760k as of 4/30/21, so its really unclear where the rest of the float is, but my guess is a mix of small funds mirroring ARK, combined with a bunch of retail and small investors.
Valuations of VLD is difficult, and I won't go into that, but with their own estimates of growth mixed with SpaceX growth demands, it is safe to assume they have a great future. The question ultimately ends up becoming, what is the fair value of it right now. I have literally no ability to price this, I have no skills in this sort of sphere, but what I can tell you is that ARK values it at 10/share becoming a good buy opportunity. Needless to say ARK also bought Tesla with a massive 1 month profit turn-around, so they know what they are doing. I would suggest a $1.6-2 billion market valuation of VLD being reasonable in the short term, with that likely to grow viciously. If you can enter around that $10 line, than you would be mimicking Cathie Wood, which is not a bad thing to do historically speaking.
They claim profitability by 2023, but I wouldn't be surprised, nor affected, by a push in either direction sooner. What is most important is their list of customers (pg 17 of velo3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Velo3D-Investor-Presentation-March-2021.pdf). Most of these are making general purchases across the industry, but if Velo has what they claim to have, and what they have shown to have, they could quickly take the market, poising them for long term growth for a 401k.
DISCLAIMER
I am going to be real honest with you; congratulations for getting to the end. Thank you for your time, I hope it was worth it. If you have any suggestions, I would love to hear it. Please don’t make an investment decision on my information alone, always double check. I am not a financial analyst, I do not get paid to write any of this, and I do not currently (4/30/21) have an investment in SPFR or it's stock price. Thanks.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.