S&P 500 IndexLong
US Equity Secular Bull Cycle, $SPX 24' Price Target, 2025 Beyond
US EQUITY
S&P 500 INDEX
BOHAN
The S&P 500 IndexSPX monthly chart: Over the past 30 years, the US stock market has weathered the personal computer cycle, the dot-com bubble, the social media cycle, and the subprime mortgage crisis. The most recent epic crash was the 2020 pandemic. Since then, the US stock market has continued its secular bull cycle, fueled by quantitative easing (QE) that began in 2008. We saw a bull market from 2020-2021 driven by QE, a bear market in 2022 due to interest rate hikes, and now, in 2023-2024, we are entering the Web 3.0 and AI era. So, where is the next epic crash? And will there be another bull cycle after that?
1.) No one can accurately predict the market. The first step to improving your COGNITION is to grasp the rules of the human system. The essence of society is that the rich exploit the poor, and the essence of the stock market is that institutions exploit retail investors. Only market makers, institutions, and family offices know what's going on because they set the game, and we're just playing it. As retail investors, the best we can do is improve our cognition, conduct in-depth research on the US stock market, and arrive at high-probability answers.
2.) Understanding dollar dominance is key to understanding society. The US established a new world order, shifting societal control from religion to currency. Wars are fought to defend the dollar's status. After the gold standard was abolished, the US dollar became the world's reserve currency, effectively ruling the world.
The long bull and short bear cycles in the US stock market rarely stem from fundamentals like earnings per share (EPS). They are mostly driven by the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing (QE) Cycles - printing money, issuing bonds, having debtor nations foot the bill, and injecting liquidity into the stock market.
Therefore, the US equity market is essentially a liquidity platform. Unless there's a World War III, US assets are the only ones suitable for long-term investment due to currency dominance. Invest long-term, dollar-cost average, and if there's an epic crash, keep buying the dip.
3.) S&P 500 (SPX) target price for the end of 2024: 6200+
Macros: The Fed's broad money supply (M2) is still growing, and QE continues.
Fundamentals: Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by the AI era.
Technical: A 4-year weekly uptrend channel since 2020, plus institutional positioning JPMorgan's JPM Collar Positions: STO SPX 6055 C DEC 21 @$50.00 + x 39600) indicates significant buying pressure.
4.) Expecting a pullback in 2025, but the secular bull market will persist.
Macros: Short-term cyclical factors like tariffs might have an impact, but the long-term trend remains intact due to continued QE.
Fundamentals: Big tech valuations might become more reasonable, especially Nvidia. However, long-term EPS for Nvidia could reach $4.00, and overall corporate earnings growth remains strong.
Technical: The 4-year weekly uptrend channel might encounter resistance, and the JPM Collar positions could see a shift from buying to selling. However, significant open interest in SPX options with high gamma at 6300, 6500, and 7000 suggests institutional bullishness for mid-2025.
Even with a 15% to 20% correction, we should continue to buy the dip, as the secular bull cycle is expected to persist.
5.) The secular bull cycle is projected to last from 2008 to 2030. An epic crash might occur at the end of this cycle, followed by another major bull market. The potential cause of the crash would be the end of QE and a resulting liquidity crisis. This is speculation, of course, but the principle of dollar dominance suggests that as long as US hegemony remains, any crash presents a buying opportunity.
*The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
S&P 500 INDEX
BOHAN
The S&P 500 Index
SPX monthly chart: Over the past 30 years, the US stock market has weathered the personal computer cycle, the dot-com bubble, the social media cycle, and the subprime mortgage crisis. The most recent epic crash was the 2020 pandemic. Since then, the US stock market has continued its secular bull cycle, fueled by quantitative easing (QE) that began in 2008. We saw a bull market from 2020-2021 driven by QE, a bear market in 2022 due to interest rate hikes, and now, in 2023-2024, we are entering the Web 3.0 and AI era. So, where is the next epic crash? And will there be another bull cycle after that?1.) No one can accurately predict the market. The first step to improving your COGNITION is to grasp the rules of the human system. The essence of society is that the rich exploit the poor, and the essence of the stock market is that institutions exploit retail investors. Only market makers, institutions, and family offices know what's going on because they set the game, and we're just playing it. As retail investors, the best we can do is improve our cognition, conduct in-depth research on the US stock market, and arrive at high-probability answers.
2.) Understanding dollar dominance is key to understanding society. The US established a new world order, shifting societal control from religion to currency. Wars are fought to defend the dollar's status. After the gold standard was abolished, the US dollar became the world's reserve currency, effectively ruling the world.
The long bull and short bear cycles in the US stock market rarely stem from fundamentals like earnings per share (EPS). They are mostly driven by the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing (QE) Cycles - printing money, issuing bonds, having debtor nations foot the bill, and injecting liquidity into the stock market.
Therefore, the US equity market is essentially a liquidity platform. Unless there's a World War III, US assets are the only ones suitable for long-term investment due to currency dominance. Invest long-term, dollar-cost average, and if there's an epic crash, keep buying the dip.
3.) S&P 500 (SPX) target price for the end of 2024: 6200+
Macros: The Fed's broad money supply (M2) is still growing, and QE continues.
Fundamentals: Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by the AI era.
Technical: A 4-year weekly uptrend channel since 2020, plus institutional positioning JPMorgan's JPM Collar Positions: STO SPX 6055 C DEC 21 @$50.00 + x 39600) indicates significant buying pressure.
4.) Expecting a pullback in 2025, but the secular bull market will persist.
Macros: Short-term cyclical factors like tariffs might have an impact, but the long-term trend remains intact due to continued QE.
Fundamentals: Big tech valuations might become more reasonable, especially Nvidia. However, long-term EPS for Nvidia could reach $4.00, and overall corporate earnings growth remains strong.
Technical: The 4-year weekly uptrend channel might encounter resistance, and the JPM Collar positions could see a shift from buying to selling. However, significant open interest in SPX options with high gamma at 6300, 6500, and 7000 suggests institutional bullishness for mid-2025.
Even with a 15% to 20% correction, we should continue to buy the dip, as the secular bull cycle is expected to persist.
5.) The secular bull cycle is projected to last from 2008 to 2030. An epic crash might occur at the end of this cycle, followed by another major bull market. The potential cause of the crash would be the end of QE and a resulting liquidity crisis. This is speculation, of course, but the principle of dollar dominance suggests that as long as US hegemony remains, any crash presents a buying opportunity.
*The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
US Equity Evident Based Research.
All Contents For Discussion, NOT financial advice.
DISCORD: discord.gg/WJSCCjvwjT
中文Youtube：youtube.com/@3sigmagroup
English Youtube: youtube.com/@3siggmagroupen
All Contents For Discussion, NOT financial advice.
DISCORD: discord.gg/WJSCCjvwjT
中文Youtube：youtube.com/@3sigmagroup
English Youtube: youtube.com/@3siggmagroupen
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
US Equity Evident Based Research.
All Contents For Discussion, NOT financial advice.
DISCORD: discord.gg/WJSCCjvwjT
中文Youtube：youtube.com/@3sigmagroup
English Youtube: youtube.com/@3siggmagroupen
All Contents For Discussion, NOT financial advice.
DISCORD: discord.gg/WJSCCjvwjT
中文Youtube：youtube.com/@3sigmagroup
English Youtube: youtube.com/@3siggmagroupen
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.