Bullish Scenario for Blow-off Parabolic: Three Drives to Top
Updated
Previous tops characterized by parabolic surge with extreme overbought RSI (arrows). This is the Third Drive; expect another parabolic blowout, followed by an extreme Bearish reaction. This final move will complete a Nenstar pattern and likely usher in a Bear Market for 2021.
A measured move from 3230 -> 3630 of 400 pips, extended to upper TL formed by previous tops, yields price 4K.
This move could occur rapidly, over 7-10 trading sessions in December, as we saw in the two prior moves, look when RSI moved from high to extreme overbought, takes about a week.
NB: Time from 30 June ending ABC correction to next top: 64 days; from 30 October projects rally ending ~> 3 Jan
This is a rosy scenario priced for perfection. Printing free money will be the catalyst. Failure in Congress will result in rollover.
I do not advise going long here; risk is extreme! Rather, this idea suggests when shorts might come into play.
Shorting this trend is also extremely risky. Calling tops is worse than fishing for bottoms IMO!
ANYTHING can happen now; trade safe FGS!!!
As always, this is not advice, just another crackpot idea. Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
A measured move from 3230 -> 3630 of 400 pips, extended to upper TL formed by previous tops, yields price 4K.
This move could occur rapidly, over 7-10 trading sessions in December, as we saw in the two prior moves, look when RSI moved from high to extreme overbought, takes about a week.
NB: Time from 30 June ending ABC correction to next top: 64 days; from 30 October projects rally ending ~> 3 Jan
This is a rosy scenario priced for perfection. Printing free money will be the catalyst. Failure in Congress will result in rollover.
I do not advise going long here; risk is extreme! Rather, this idea suggests when shorts might come into play.
Shorting this trend is also extremely risky. Calling tops is worse than fishing for bottoms IMO!
ANYTHING can happen now; trade safe FGS!!!
As always, this is not advice, just another crackpot idea. Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Trade active
Preliminary short probe in the Dec 369P spread vs 9 Dec 367P for net $4 debit on 3 spreads. Add if it lifts; looking toppy IMOTrade active
Closed on the gap and re-entering on gapfill.Trade closed manually
Dumped the spreads on the dip; then they bought the damned dip! Gonna be tough to make anything in this whipsaw; staying out rest of today.Note
Closed out all my inverse ETFs. IF this model pans out with a massive blowoff parabolic, IMO these short-seller funds will meldown. Waiting until New Year to get back into the short funds.Note
I cannot emphasize strongly enough how risky it is to be short here... two pieces of good news later this week could blow the top off this nutty rally... staying in cash!Note
P/C ratio at an all-time low; call buying at highest level ever... end of rally is near but the bubble can still expand geometrically!The August rally lasted 64 days... this one will likely run until 3 Jan if it goes 64... tax selling in Jan likely spark the waterfall IMO
Trade active
Shorted and closed intraday; looks like it will close at LOTD; is breaking under TL, if no bounce now will crack IMONote
Considering FB will be defendant in 48 states, trading off only $6, hmmm....!Note
Just waiting now in cash...Trade active
After FTG made beer money off put spreads then rolled into a Christmas Call spread, 24 Dec 364 SPY calls, $3 spread short the Monday 367C. Trades at first support; might give us EOD short-covering rally.Bearishness is modest; it's not a massive selloff, no panic. Deal on stimulus will explode it IMO
Note
Forming a bullish wedge oughta get a bounce soon IMOTrade closed manually
Made nice change off the bounce; not getting greedy; closed in cash over weekend! Anything can happen Monday...Note
IMO gonna get a double top, all tops have been doubles past two years. Nominal new ATH around 3730 likely before it breaks.Look at 13 Jan - 18 Feb this year... see it? Doing it again...
Note
22 Jan-19 Feb went 3338 > 3378, 40 pips higher; if similar pattern plays will get 3716 > 3756 within 2 weeks.Note
Closing the gap intraday MOnday 12/14; played FTG for beer money; forms a falling wedge: wouldn't short it here... any word from the Hill will pop-rocket IMONote
Got rejected from a lower high... dip buying peters out... long UVXY in Jan callsTrade closed manually
Got a nice double top now; passing stim bill will complete the measured move IMO; fail in Congress > RolloverTrade active
Making a falling wedge in Am trade Fri 12/18; buying bull spreads in Xmas calls, SPY 269s short the 272 dailies; GLTA!Trade closed: stop reached
Forced out on stops it's triple witching. Expect btfd rally EOY IMOTrade active
Shorted retracement 12/21. Got a hanging man. Gonna sell hard soon IMONote
VIX increases with increasing price; trades near ATH; look out...Trade active
Closed bear spreads on the daily dip; holding inverse ETFsTrade active
Looks like an H&S at 3710, in the right shoulder...! Reloaded bear spreads, just a few to open. LIkely short covering EOD and again Thursday. Market shook off Trump hissy fit, ignoring hysteria. Santa is coming!
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Kudos to TradingShot for pubbing a similar idea, reposted below; shorting too early can wipe you out!Trade active
Taking a few shorts on a bounce to lower high.Trade closed manually
Stopped outNote
Jun, Sep tops came 4-5 days after a break up like this one on 1/20; if pattern repeats, expect top on or about 1/27Trade closed manually
Closed out inverse ETFs and bear spreads on this selloff. Probly gonna bounce; calls are stupid price now premiums doubled so u can't make anything. I watched the 2/05 378 calls go from 5.60 > 5.90 while SPY rose $2, any price change is already discounted in the option.Note
Yeah watched IWM calls Friday's weeklies at $210 strike went from 2.90 > 3.30 while stock rose $1, so a .40 delta; useless to risk for so little reward IMO; not chasing this!Note
Futurz selling gone in half AH. Expect some follow-thru from Weds 1/27, bounce from support between 3660-3680 IMO. Either gonna get an ABC or a motive correction wave in Feb.
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