SPX since 2002 , Using Gold as indicator= 40% success rate
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" The relationship between stock valuations and the gold price is widely debated. The standard view is that these two markets are negatively linked: when the stocks go up, the yellow metal dives, and vice versa. This is indeed often the case, as the gold is a safe haven, so when traders go into defensive mode, they may prefer gold to relatively risky stocks. Clearly, as the chart in the idea, there have been many periods when stocks and gold have been moving in opposite directions. This is why gold is also a good portfolio diversifier, as it provides a hedge against the S&P 500 Index ". Conclusion: Can not be used as an indicator, high risk with low success rate.
----------------------------- Summary: 40 % @1-5 weeks heads up 22% @ lagging 3-5 weeks. 38 % @ more than 9 weeks heads up. ---------------------------------------- Data: 1 week 5 weeks 5 weeks 9 weeks 1 week & 21 weeks Lagging by 3 weeks 1 week 1 week 4 weeks lagging by 4 lagging by 4 false 10 weeks 32 weeks 41 weeks 23 weeks 10 weeks lagging by 3 4weeks lagging by 9 & 40 weeks lagging by 5 1 week --------------------- SUMMARY OF 22 SIGANLS: 5, 1 week heads up. 2, 4 weeks heads up. 2, 5 weeks heads up. 5, lagging by 3-5 weeks. 8, more than 9 weeks heads up.
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