Hello everyone,
In my opinion, it's good to be honest with yourself. And if I am being honest, it appears that the S&P 500 may have just printed a massive double top signaling a potential bearish trend in the foreseeable future. Now before you scream chicken little, hear me out. With what's going on in the world there is a lot of uncertainty, and the market does not like uncertainty. If you consider the politics, the unrest, the extreme overvaluation of stocks, the pandemic, the trade wars, the low-interest rates with rising inflation, the devaluation of the USD, and recent stock gurus selling off massive swaths of their positions, like Warren Buffett who recently sold 11 positions, it definitely appears there are a lot more negative factors than positive. If you look at the Warren Buffet indicator, it shows that the total market cap of the stock market is more than 2x the size of the US GDP (209% to be exact). With this factored with the recent announcement of the capital gains hike from 15% to 43% as well as the crypto sell-off where you saw big names like DOGE coin and Bitcoin lost about 25% of their value in the blink of an eye, there are a lot of things to be concerned about. Not to mention that due to the low interest rates, home prices are at all-time highs with a massive shortage of 11 million single-family homes we are entering a massive housing bubble, which may make the 2008 housing market crash look like peanuts. Could this be the perfect storm? I hope not. And this is coming from someone who has a long-term bullish sentiment. We need to be honest here. Is anyone else seeing this or is it just me? And this is just scratching the surface of something that is much broader and worldwide. What will it take? Another COVID resurgence? War? Time will tell.
In my opinion, it's good to be honest with yourself. And if I am being honest, it appears that the S&P 500 may have just printed a massive double top signaling a potential bearish trend in the foreseeable future. Now before you scream chicken little, hear me out. With what's going on in the world there is a lot of uncertainty, and the market does not like uncertainty. If you consider the politics, the unrest, the extreme overvaluation of stocks, the pandemic, the trade wars, the low-interest rates with rising inflation, the devaluation of the USD, and recent stock gurus selling off massive swaths of their positions, like Warren Buffett who recently sold 11 positions, it definitely appears there are a lot more negative factors than positive. If you look at the Warren Buffet indicator, it shows that the total market cap of the stock market is more than 2x the size of the US GDP (209% to be exact). With this factored with the recent announcement of the capital gains hike from 15% to 43% as well as the crypto sell-off where you saw big names like DOGE coin and Bitcoin lost about 25% of their value in the blink of an eye, there are a lot of things to be concerned about. Not to mention that due to the low interest rates, home prices are at all-time highs with a massive shortage of 11 million single-family homes we are entering a massive housing bubble, which may make the 2008 housing market crash look like peanuts. Could this be the perfect storm? I hope not. And this is coming from someone who has a long-term bullish sentiment. We need to be honest here. Is anyone else seeing this or is it just me? And this is just scratching the surface of something that is much broader and worldwide. What will it take? Another COVID resurgence? War? Time will tell.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.