S&P 500 IndexShort
SPX - Pullback or Melt-UP? Adapt or Die!
BLUF: Probabilities are High for a OCT Pullback, Who knows how far/how long or will it just skip the pullback and go straight into a fall “Melt-Up”…TBD!
The macro keeps chugging along…As many have mentioned…the continued rescue will NOT be from Sovereign Monetary Central Banks but “Fiscally,” on a global scale….Stand-Bye, Bust it!…Always a head shot! What is the Price of Money? What causes this change….read up on Libor versus SOFR, its different! Environments change…No One Cares Why! Stop your Fuukin Wining…Adapt of Die!
Oil, Bonds, Yields, Face-Value, Politics, Religion, Whistleblowers, Mr. T…don’t be distracted…BS Meter is Pegged! Situational Awareness…”Got Your Six”!
Of Note…always good reads from the Convexity Maven:
“The investment ideas offered here (they clearly are not “trades”) exist for two reasons. First, overweening Central Bankers are loath to admit that Monetary Policy has reached its limits. Second, and this is a preview for my next Commentary, investment managers (and their clients) are overly reliant upon financial metrics that equate daily mark-to-market volatility with the likelihood that an investment will reach its ex ante expected return (think Sharpe ratios).
Notwithstanding the title of this Commentary, the world is not that bad. Western politics may be a tad dyspeptic, but 1968 was a lot worse than 2019. As a 1960s unwoke parent might have said: “Let me give you something to cry about....”
Sizing is more important than entry level. Well-intended Central Bank policies have created some delicious investment opportunities; but by their nature they will be volatile on a mark-to-market basis. Barbell your risk profile, keep some assets in the low volatility bucket, but also make sure you allocate enough to the ‘elephant hunter’ trades to move the ‘needle’ on your portfolio.”
Harley Bassman
convexitymaven.com/images/Convexity_Maven_-_The_Opposite_of_Bad_is_Worse.pdf
The macro keeps chugging along…As many have mentioned…the continued rescue will NOT be from Sovereign Monetary Central Banks but “Fiscally,” on a global scale….Stand-Bye, Bust it!…Always a head shot! What is the Price of Money? What causes this change….read up on Libor versus SOFR, its different! Environments change…No One Cares Why! Stop your Fuukin Wining…Adapt of Die!
Oil, Bonds, Yields, Face-Value, Politics, Religion, Whistleblowers, Mr. T…don’t be distracted…BS Meter is Pegged! Situational Awareness…”Got Your Six”!
Of Note…always good reads from the Convexity Maven:
“The investment ideas offered here (they clearly are not “trades”) exist for two reasons. First, overweening Central Bankers are loath to admit that Monetary Policy has reached its limits. Second, and this is a preview for my next Commentary, investment managers (and their clients) are overly reliant upon financial metrics that equate daily mark-to-market volatility with the likelihood that an investment will reach its ex ante expected return (think Sharpe ratios).
Notwithstanding the title of this Commentary, the world is not that bad. Western politics may be a tad dyspeptic, but 1968 was a lot worse than 2019. As a 1960s unwoke parent might have said: “Let me give you something to cry about....”
Sizing is more important than entry level. Well-intended Central Bank policies have created some delicious investment opportunities; but by their nature they will be volatile on a mark-to-market basis. Barbell your risk profile, keep some assets in the low volatility bucket, but also make sure you allocate enough to the ‘elephant hunter’ trades to move the ‘needle’ on your portfolio.”
Harley Bassman
convexitymaven.com/images/Convexity_Maven_-_The_Opposite_of_Bad_is_Worse.pdf
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