2020 US Election Indicator (November 3rd 2020)
November 3rd 2020 USA Presidential Election (S&P 500 Incumbent Winner Indication)
Alright, it's time for the showdown! It's finally November 3rd 2020 and we find out more tonight!
Will the S&P 500 close over 3288.3 points today? If it does, it should be expected that Trump is the winner of the 2020 USA presidential election, but if we sink below 3288.3 then there is a chance that Biden wins.
My original forecast for the election before seeing any of this data was for a Trump win as well, so it just feels like everything has come together to signal his win even if last minute. Considering polling and contrarian indication, Cindicator's hybrid artificial intelligence projecting a 60% chance of a Trump win, failed impeachment, and all the October email scandals since 2016, I am under full belief Trump will win, even if by a close measure.
This is an election indicator that has been historically accurate 20 out of 23 previous election analyses. I've been seeing some articles that say Biden is signaled to win because of the downtrend we had over the past few weeks, but that was before a few days ago when we hit a trend reversal, and started pulling back over August 3rd 2020 S&P 500 levels.
In 2016, the S&P 500 dropped -4.79% over the 3 month period from the open of August 3rd 2016 to market close of November 3rd 2016. As of right now about an hour before market close, we have reached a high of 3.08% since August 3rd 2020, and we are still in the positive above the 3288.3 points. We could end in the next hour around 3360-3370 points, and that would be an incumbent win as per the election indicator rules.
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
Alright, it's time for the showdown! It's finally November 3rd 2020 and we find out more tonight!
Will the S&P 500 close over 3288.3 points today? If it does, it should be expected that Trump is the winner of the 2020 USA presidential election, but if we sink below 3288.3 then there is a chance that Biden wins.
My original forecast for the election before seeing any of this data was for a Trump win as well, so it just feels like everything has come together to signal his win even if last minute. Considering polling and contrarian indication, Cindicator's hybrid artificial intelligence projecting a 60% chance of a Trump win, failed impeachment, and all the October email scandals since 2016, I am under full belief Trump will win, even if by a close measure.
This is an election indicator that has been historically accurate 20 out of 23 previous election analyses. I've been seeing some articles that say Biden is signaled to win because of the downtrend we had over the past few weeks, but that was before a few days ago when we hit a trend reversal, and started pulling back over August 3rd 2020 S&P 500 levels.
In 2016, the S&P 500 dropped -4.79% over the 3 month period from the open of August 3rd 2016 to market close of November 3rd 2016. As of right now about an hour before market close, we have reached a high of 3.08% since August 3rd 2020, and we are still in the positive above the 3288.3 points. We could end in the next hour around 3360-3370 points, and that would be an incumbent win as per the election indicator rules.
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
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