Updated

Two paths - ES mini

Sell off overnight was expected, but since we are over the downtrend channel, the question is - will the channel act as support at 3720 area and then we rally further to the 4k area (yellow arrow)? Or - do we break below the channel again and make our way down to 3500 as I originally thought, and still lean towards (red arrow). A breakdown would make the weekly candle look like a failed breakout from the channel - bearish. A breakup would make the weekly candle even more bullish than it already is.

I'm not totally sure which is going to happen so I'll watch any reaction if/when we get to 3720 area. Good luck!

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they are trying to hold the channel

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there's a structure they may test, but nothing is bullish until over 3750

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Got there, bears need to reject here.

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3750 area reached, waiting for an hourly close above this level to get out of shorts.

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Looks like an abc, still waiting for an hourly close in 40 minutes

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We've reached the .658 fib of the move down from yesterday. Everything looks bullish and any higher than 3780 will solidify the bull case. Keep in mind C waves LOOK bullish but they aren't. Selling from here would indicate the ABC is over and we go lower into the 3600's again. I'm not sure, so I've just decided to wait and see if they can get over this fib.

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Market continues to go up, I got out of shorts. It may be a mistake but I don't want to lose the capital. Under today's low and I'll short again, but I'm expecting a continued rally to 4k as of now.

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We still haven't closed above the daily 18ma which is sitting at 3810 on ES. In general that means bias is down but I want to see how the overnight goes. Again under today's low and it's a short but that is a tall order right now. I'll have to wait for a better setup than here and now.

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We closed with a hanging man candle and still under the 18ma. Could it mean a reversal overnight again? Well, that would be quite the whipsaw, so yes it's possible. Above 3820 on a daily close and the bias turns much more bullish investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/040914/understanding-hanging-man-optimistic-candlestick-pattern.asp

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" The hanging man comes after a price advance, it is bearish because it shows that price had been advancing over successive days. The bulls were firmly in control. But then on the day the hanging man formed, bulls were at first in control. But during the session the bears came in and pushed price down. The bulls came back in and pushed price up. But the reassertion of bears in the market, shows that bulls are no longer firmly in control."

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