Short

Onward towards capitulation week SPX, USOIL, BTC

Updated

Move movement downward last night after the bear pennant broke. Expect a small bounce into Friday. Next week should be pretty awful.

I want to wish my followers a wonderful Independence day weekend! I'll post some static charts and maybe a video if/when the inspiration hits - Enjoy yourselves!

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Correction - the green trendline comes from the top in March 2022, not the the top in December 2021.

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Target before bounce may be here -

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Target reached, bounce into tomorrow likely from here

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Projected path

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went lower than expected, but I think the bounce should start now. We'll see.

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OIL getting hammered

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Bounce looking like this into tomorrow.

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Shorts getting squeezed and it went higher than expected, expect a consolidation rest of day then push up to test 3800 tomorrow.

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Rally is very strong - likely a C wave - meaning the correction started yesterday and may be over today. Between 3800-3815 is a short for me. Waiting to see if they get there.

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Close to 3800, collecting shorts here

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Should get one more high, going to wait. If yellow line breaks I'll add more on retest of yellow.

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target reached, should reject soon if I'm correct. took on more shorts, will add on confirmation.

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They're trying to hold 3800 level, the red line is very important to the algos. A close below 3780 would end this rally for certain (below yellow line), but if we close above 3810, we could ride up to 3850's by tomorrow. I'll be managing my trade if the end of the day is more bullish than I thought.

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they are making it hard haha! looks like an ending diagonal, one more wave up to trap bulls is my guess. If I'm wrong, they rally past 3830. Will update either way.

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this count for the end of C look correct.

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the last count has been invalidated and it looks like bears took it down after the doubletop. I'm wrong, if it gets over the high, and my stops are there. It should continue falling into next week from here (if I'm correct) if not, I stop out and reevaluate. OK, the day is done for me - enjoy your evening.

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Last note from today's market action. Bear pennant target is still around 3675ish, so I expect that tomorrow regardless of any Elliot wave count. I may take some off the table at that point, just in case. We rallied to the exact middle of the pennant today, and that strong resistance + .382 fib should have been the end of the rally. If for any reason they get above those levels I'm out of the trade completely. They tagged the redline one more time in the last hour, I had to laugh. People who think charting is a waste of time also make me laugh.

the_sunship

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by the_sunship

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