Market overview and macro outlook
Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs
1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise.
2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows.
3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the upside, and we should be looking for downside trades now
Upcoming news
1. FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty
2. US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD
- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
3. US Core PPI on Fri - TBD
- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here.
Technical View
At a higher time frame, I want to see price hit 5500 for a short position then.
In the short term of today and tomorrow, I want to see prices hit 5267 for me to take a Short position - there's a Supply zone there from the M5 TF.
SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
Execution
1. Limit order
- SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
- TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
- TF: Close limit order before CPI or PPI reports. If no entry by then
Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 2
WR: 0%
Profit: -1.1R
Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
Trade active
Trade entered. This is a strong move up to my entry area. May hit SL quickly if the momentum of the tariff negotiation hopes sustainsTrade closed: target reached
Adjusted TP reached. 3R profit in this trade idea.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.