US indices went up overall yesterday.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at +1.36%.
The positive upward move has been driven by the forecast sales of the big retailers such as Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy, which will not fall as much as expected.
Today's focus is on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting: the expectation is that the consensus over higher interest rates is increasing.
At the beginning of this month, Jerome Powell said that rates have to go higher than the central bank’s quarterly projections in September, from 4.5% to 4.75%.
Investors see rates topping at around 5% in 2023, based on the pricing in money markets.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis - Daily Chart
The S&P 500 price is still trading inside the ascending channel, since the beginning of October.
The support at 3900 has been held in the past few days. The price closed yesterday above the 4000 psychological level.
This is a bullish sign, therefore we can expect the index price to rise to the range between 4048 and 4100, respectively the 200-day MA (green moving average) and the trend line of the bear market.
If the price can break above 200-day MA, it would be a very bullish signal that will push prices even higher and the market could flip potentially to a bull market.
The RSI remains at 61, indicating a Bullish trend.
Market Sentiment - Fear & Greed Index
The market sentiment remains in the "Greed" mode, at 62, exactly the same level as yesterday.
FedWatch Tool - FED rates probabilities
75.8% of investors are expecting the FED to increase the interest rates by 0.50% in the next meeting.
The remaining 24.2% are expecting a 0.75% rate increase.
The data show us that the number of investors expecting an increase of 0.75% is higher than a week ago.
No other options are considered at this stage.
The next FED meeting is on 14 December 2022.
Federica Montella
eToro Popular Investor
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at +1.36%.
The positive upward move has been driven by the forecast sales of the big retailers such as Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy, which will not fall as much as expected.
Today's focus is on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting: the expectation is that the consensus over higher interest rates is increasing.
At the beginning of this month, Jerome Powell said that rates have to go higher than the central bank’s quarterly projections in September, from 4.5% to 4.75%.
Investors see rates topping at around 5% in 2023, based on the pricing in money markets.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis - Daily Chart
The S&P 500 price is still trading inside the ascending channel, since the beginning of October.
The support at 3900 has been held in the past few days. The price closed yesterday above the 4000 psychological level.
This is a bullish sign, therefore we can expect the index price to rise to the range between 4048 and 4100, respectively the 200-day MA (green moving average) and the trend line of the bear market.
If the price can break above 200-day MA, it would be a very bullish signal that will push prices even higher and the market could flip potentially to a bull market.
The RSI remains at 61, indicating a Bullish trend.
Market Sentiment - Fear & Greed Index
The market sentiment remains in the "Greed" mode, at 62, exactly the same level as yesterday.
FedWatch Tool - FED rates probabilities
75.8% of investors are expecting the FED to increase the interest rates by 0.50% in the next meeting.
The remaining 24.2% are expecting a 0.75% rate increase.
The data show us that the number of investors expecting an increase of 0.75% is higher than a week ago.
No other options are considered at this stage.
The next FED meeting is on 14 December 2022.
Federica Montella
eToro Popular Investor
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.