SPY: Probability of 0.618 Retracement is High
This market is full of uncertainty. It runs around looking for stimulus after the "trade talk progress" no longer makes it happy inside. It needs answers to the bad data, the contradictions found between fact and fiction; facts of economic slowdown coupled with the fictional, false narrative that the economy is strong. Market needs a strong daddy.
I expect more volatility for the coming weeks, and the FED will come out and tell the market what a good boy it is what with a strong economy / labor market and all, and thusly give it some candy and a five dollar bill. The market will cheer up, wipe the tears away and go play the games that only it understands - but it may occasionally fall and scrape its knee from time to time.
In all seriousness, just look at the resistance at the 280 level. Since last January we have had only two breakouts yet seven resistance pullbacks. We are far extended above the 100 day VWMA, the 100 day CCI rejected the 100 mark, and the fisher gives us a bearish divergence. Only good thing it has going for it is FED day and the "trade deal" which can and will be postponed indefinitely like a carrot on a stick.
Lets see where this goes, I suspect we hold the 0.618 level at 270.
I expect more volatility for the coming weeks, and the FED will come out and tell the market what a good boy it is what with a strong economy / labor market and all, and thusly give it some candy and a five dollar bill. The market will cheer up, wipe the tears away and go play the games that only it understands - but it may occasionally fall and scrape its knee from time to time.
In all seriousness, just look at the resistance at the 280 level. Since last January we have had only two breakouts yet seven resistance pullbacks. We are far extended above the 100 day VWMA, the 100 day CCI rejected the 100 mark, and the fisher gives us a bearish divergence. Only good thing it has going for it is FED day and the "trade deal" which can and will be postponed indefinitely like a carrot on a stick.
Lets see where this goes, I suspect we hold the 0.618 level at 270.
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