Market looks constructive, but still a ways to go!!!
Updated
Been a while since I've done a true VWAP analysis of the market here, but after today's rally, it seems like a great time.
Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it.
Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline.
Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it.
Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!!
If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets.
In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook.
Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term:
Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested.
Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it.
Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline.
Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it.
Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!!
If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets.
In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook.
Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term:
Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested.
Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
Note
Market is consolidating here right in the VWAP's I've pointed out, look for a break here in either direction (personally I feel the higher probability outcome is towards the upper side of the range, but always have a stop loss!)
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