well we've so far passed all my support points and are like in super duper oversold territory. Traders want to bounce but I'm going to finally change my 6 month outlook. BEARISH. Short term it depends on how the chips fall -- if we get some straws to grasp at on the economic data side of things, we could bounce easily to $580.
But people are not liking the current field, even after all the panic selling, there aren't many management firms snatching up the deals. Except for NVDA, people really fell on that knife these past 2 days, hoping its profits remain magnificent and its costs don't increase. Maybe TSLA will be a buy soon -- Musk owns less than 50% of the company right? They can vote him out in June? I mean I was expecting a bounce and extra profits from the CEO being so close to the POTUS but maybe people are sensing he's too MIA, off playing video games or something.
Worst of all, the administration isn't even giving people platitudes. There's no, 'we're doing everything we can to prevent a full Biden recession'. There's almost a calm acceptance that it might happen and we'll be better off for it. At first it was just uncertainty around rate cuts but its blossomed into caution around CapEx and MA (because somehow the outlook on tariffs is even murkier now than in December) and dent in employment activity due to mass layoffs at the federal level. Like this year just cannot get any worse -- and any bullish reversals will be due to that sentiment; that we're impervious to further drops in the stock market because the bad news is already priced in. But we haven't accounted for all the people who will have to cash out of their 401k's this fall and therefore cannot discount the possibility of a 25% market correction or more. Like, I'll change my mind when the administration starts acting like recessions are bad and we should work our hardest to avoid them rather than just making sure Biden gets some of the blame (no way Trump escapes all the blame anymore, he'll be lucky if he can avoid a government shutdown Friday).
Like usually treasuries move inverse to stock market action, but what if the pause in business activity is because of unpredictability at the federal government? How long before we float the idea of reneging on our debts and we get downgraded to a B+? Like we talk about protectionist policies and fiscal conservativism; what could be more of an America first policy than just defaulting on our owed debt? I just hope we can default in tranches so that not all $36 trillion becomes worthless all at once. Maybe the Fed can look into that -- stop selling short term notes for example and commit to honoring our immediate debts...
But people are not liking the current field, even after all the panic selling, there aren't many management firms snatching up the deals. Except for NVDA, people really fell on that knife these past 2 days, hoping its profits remain magnificent and its costs don't increase. Maybe TSLA will be a buy soon -- Musk owns less than 50% of the company right? They can vote him out in June? I mean I was expecting a bounce and extra profits from the CEO being so close to the POTUS but maybe people are sensing he's too MIA, off playing video games or something.
Worst of all, the administration isn't even giving people platitudes. There's no, 'we're doing everything we can to prevent a full Biden recession'. There's almost a calm acceptance that it might happen and we'll be better off for it. At first it was just uncertainty around rate cuts but its blossomed into caution around CapEx and MA (because somehow the outlook on tariffs is even murkier now than in December) and dent in employment activity due to mass layoffs at the federal level. Like this year just cannot get any worse -- and any bullish reversals will be due to that sentiment; that we're impervious to further drops in the stock market because the bad news is already priced in. But we haven't accounted for all the people who will have to cash out of their 401k's this fall and therefore cannot discount the possibility of a 25% market correction or more. Like, I'll change my mind when the administration starts acting like recessions are bad and we should work our hardest to avoid them rather than just making sure Biden gets some of the blame (no way Trump escapes all the blame anymore, he'll be lucky if he can avoid a government shutdown Friday).
Like usually treasuries move inverse to stock market action, but what if the pause in business activity is because of unpredictability at the federal government? How long before we float the idea of reneging on our debts and we get downgraded to a B+? Like we talk about protectionist policies and fiscal conservativism; what could be more of an America first policy than just defaulting on our owed debt? I just hope we can default in tranches so that not all $36 trillion becomes worthless all at once. Maybe the Fed can look into that -- stop selling short term notes for example and commit to honoring our immediate debts...
Note
hmm, Stupid Willy seems to align decently to price action on the 30 min timeframe. Still, seems to say $546.22 is the next level of supportNote
my ghost face is actually made of smaller ghost faces :)it looks like some profit taking but not a lot of panic -- also not alot of greed....maybe it is all bull from here? slow and steady with a healthy smattering of bearish sentiment is the best way to march upwards.
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.