Down only from here on out. $SPY to bottom below $300
Updated
I've been waiting for this moment for the past two years. Over the next week or so, I expect a high to be put in on the stock market at ~$441-$446, and then the market will be in down only mode for the next 6 months to a year.
I don't take joy in seeing the market fall, but from a trading perspective these opportunities only happen once every 10-15 years and there's lots of money that can be made on the downside. Markets fall faster than they rise, and I think the next 6 months will be painful.
So sharing this as a warning for those long-only investors (to take some profit or sit in cash) and as an opportunity for those that feel comfortable shorting.
What would change my mind is a move above $446 and flipping that level as support. But otherwise, we will move down from here.
Everyone expects rates to come down and thinks that will pump up the market, but I have the opposite view. I think rates will fall because they'll need to be cut after a market wide crisis.
Technically, we've formed a monthly lower high already and we've been consolidating in a tight range, I think once we retest the highs, we'll confirm this last level as resistance and then the market will fall much faster than the last few months and faster than it did last year.
I expect the bottom to be put in sometime between now and October of next year (2024) at $271. I've marked off key levels of support and resistance on the chart.
In July I traded the top:
But from here on out, I think the bottom drops out of the market. Hence why I'm sharing this now.
Key dates on the chart June 17, July 1, Sep 23. Those are all pivot dates on the weekly timeframe where it's an important time to watch for price action.
Good luck trading this next year.
I don't take joy in seeing the market fall, but from a trading perspective these opportunities only happen once every 10-15 years and there's lots of money that can be made on the downside. Markets fall faster than they rise, and I think the next 6 months will be painful.
So sharing this as a warning for those long-only investors (to take some profit or sit in cash) and as an opportunity for those that feel comfortable shorting.
What would change my mind is a move above $446 and flipping that level as support. But otherwise, we will move down from here.
Everyone expects rates to come down and thinks that will pump up the market, but I have the opposite view. I think rates will fall because they'll need to be cut after a market wide crisis.
Technically, we've formed a monthly lower high already and we've been consolidating in a tight range, I think once we retest the highs, we'll confirm this last level as resistance and then the market will fall much faster than the last few months and faster than it did last year.
I expect the bottom to be put in sometime between now and October of next year (2024) at $271. I've marked off key levels of support and resistance on the chart.
In July I traded the top:
But from here on out, I think the bottom drops out of the market. Hence why I'm sharing this now.
Key dates on the chart June 17, July 1, Sep 23. Those are all pivot dates on the weekly timeframe where it's an important time to watch for price action.
Good luck trading this next year.
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Added puts today. Will add tomorrow as well. Think there's possibility for SPY to extend to $455-458. That's where I'd like to add tomorrow.Note
Expirations will be for Dec 2024Note
As of now, looking like the market won't hit $455 today, so will likely add long-term puts tomorrow morning instead.Will update if that changes.
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Plan today $453-458 target to short.Note
Well, still not getting that level. Will be patient and wait for it to come -- tomorrow or Monday now.Note
Now at $455. Will likely add tomorrow instead of today. Want to see if $458 gets hit.Note
Welp NVDA beat but so far market is selling off. Probably should've added at $455 yesterday when it hit. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Expecting a top to be put in either tomorrow or Friday.Note
Bought SPY 03/15/2024 444.00 PNote
Could see the move to $458 finally happening here... if it does happen, that's a great place to add a ton.Note
I think that area would quickly be sold into.Note
Well $458 was hit and it did indeed get sold into quickly. I could see one more reaction higher tomorrow. Maybe up to $459 before the full reversal happens (the level it rejected from in July). If we get it, I'm adding to my position there.Note
Welp looks like we're not going to get it. Maybe straight down ? Let's see.Note
Okay, looking likely that we get $459 soon. That should be the final high.Note
Bought some $447 SPY puts for 12/8 at $459.17Note
Definitely on the more risky side. Safer bet is to buy puts out to 3/15 or april 2023Note
Puts in the positive already pretty much nailing the top of the reversal (off by $.50). Now I expect first target to be somewhere between $436-447.Note
I think there's likely one more leg up now to $472. I exited my shorts and will reenter at that level. Should happen over the next 2-3 weeks. My guess is then people will call for new ATHs and then we'll reverse.I took calls in TSLA, META and some in spy too.
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Updated idea: 
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Updated weekly view: 
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