Wavervanir DSS | April 30, 2025
SPY is approaching a critical reversal zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$563.33), following a sharp bounce from the March lows at $481.80. Price is now testing overhead supply from a prior breakdown, and a rejection here aligns with both technical exhaustion and deteriorating macro conditions.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
Resistance Zone: $563.33 (Fib 0.786) – Strong potential reversal point.
Bearish Targets:
$500 (Fib 0.786 from Jan–Mar leg)
$481.80 (prior low)
$431.45 (Fib 1.382 extension)
Structure: ABC corrective wave likely playing out with lower highs forming.
Volume: Momentum on the rally is weakening—bearish divergence setting in.
🧠 Macro Alignment
Sticky Inflation and high real yields persist.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in May (no pivot).
Earnings and forward guidance remain mixed, with cracks showing in consumer credit and regional banks.
Soft landing narrative is fading unless CPI or labor data surprises to the downside.
📊 Probability Estimate
Bearish Reversal (to $431.45): 65%
Bullish Continuation (to $598.51): 25%
Sideways Chop (532–563 range): 10%
⏳ Watch for confirmation below $547 to validate the reversal.
📉 If 563 holds, downside may accelerate into summer.
🧠 WaverVanir DSS remains net short while volatility remains structurally elevated.
💬 What’s your play? Bull trap or breakout?
#SPY #S&P500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #TradingView #Fibonacci #BearMarket #RecessionRisk
SPY is approaching a critical reversal zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$563.33), following a sharp bounce from the March lows at $481.80. Price is now testing overhead supply from a prior breakdown, and a rejection here aligns with both technical exhaustion and deteriorating macro conditions.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
Resistance Zone: $563.33 (Fib 0.786) – Strong potential reversal point.
Bearish Targets:
$500 (Fib 0.786 from Jan–Mar leg)
$481.80 (prior low)
$431.45 (Fib 1.382 extension)
Structure: ABC corrective wave likely playing out with lower highs forming.
Volume: Momentum on the rally is weakening—bearish divergence setting in.
🧠 Macro Alignment
Sticky Inflation and high real yields persist.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in May (no pivot).
Earnings and forward guidance remain mixed, with cracks showing in consumer credit and regional banks.
Soft landing narrative is fading unless CPI or labor data surprises to the downside.
📊 Probability Estimate
Bearish Reversal (to $431.45): 65%
Bullish Continuation (to $598.51): 25%
Sideways Chop (532–563 range): 10%
⏳ Watch for confirmation below $547 to validate the reversal.
📉 If 563 holds, downside may accelerate into summer.
🧠 WaverVanir DSS remains net short while volatility remains structurally elevated.
💬 What’s your play? Bull trap or breakout?
#SPY #S&P500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #TradingView #Fibonacci #BearMarket #RecessionRisk
Note
Note
Trade active
I think they will not change the interest rate and the reaction to that will be the bearish pivot. Anyway, careful till FOMC next week. Note
Update DSS turned bearish despite 60 sentiment score. Gwad save the market. Our puts are going to print. Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.