SPY 20 DAY/50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE IS A GLASS FLOOR
I see Crowning. Many times that is a key formation of near term top. More important the 20 day moving average. This market will likely be resistant, break it, fade, test up, sideways, then down a bit near the 20 day and 50 day. The 20 day moving average has crossed down under the 50 day. In the past 15 months this has been "yawn". It merely reverses and rips up. But this one may have legs. Beware of market price at this time. There could be a hard sell anywhere during a show of strength. Wall Street loves to keep the masses in a habit of expecting easy price moves - ie. "buy the dip"... then snap them into a new reality. There is danger as the tech sector and small caps have given up leadership and fail to retake it. This warning is often overlooked in the continued market euphoria. We have not seen real selling in some time in the general market. Many in tech stocks have however experienced a new reality. It could be said they have experienced some selling. YELP has lost almost half it's value from the top. From our perspective, we see a test of SPY at 180 near the 200 day sma in the future this summer. You may not agree, but should be prepared for the possibility. IYT transports are a true market bellwether. Be mindful if transports begin to fall. The superbull of the 5th year tear began with a breakout on a sideways formation of IYT. The bull will retreat as transports fall. We are not calling for a bear market with interest rates buried down so low, but the word correction may be in vogue in the coming months.
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