SPY in a downtrend? Where's Top? THE ANSWERS!
Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid.
Interesting:
Important:
Very important:
*** The high of (this) week is not relevant to the 2W downtrend. Only the candle Close on Friday (8/12/22).
Implication (not opinion):
... *as long as* price falls back to $417.44 by EOW.
The point: ... idk. Ask me in 2 weeks.
Where is "top"?:
It's the price where the last bear goes long (aka covers). In other words when there is not a single buyer left.
[Note(s)]
** Starting with Homma Munehisa, (1755) The Fountain of Gold—The Three Monkey Record of Money.
to the more contemporary: Al Brooks, (2009) "Trading Price Action Trends"
.. and everyone in between.
Interesting:
- A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. **
- A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF.
- Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF but invalid in another.
- A HH is established when the previous HH is superseded by a new candle's _____________ (fill in the blank).
- Answer: It's the new candles **close** that takes out a previous high, **not** its own high. Once that condition has been met the new High is promoted to the status of HH.
Important:
- SPY's 1 week down trend was invalidated when the HH of $393.16 established on the 28th of June, 2022 was taken out by the close of $395.09 on Friday, July 18th, 2022.
- Chart: 2 week downtrend is still valid and the current 2W candle closes in 5 days. (8/12/22)
- The trend remains valid if that close is below the previous HH of $417.44 established on June 2nd 2022.
Very important:
*** The high of (this) week is not relevant to the 2W downtrend. Only the candle Close on Friday (8/12/22).
Implication (not opinion):
- If SPY rallies to $420, the downtrend is still valid.
- If SPY rallies to $500, the downtrend is still valid.
- If SPY rallies to $600, the downtrend is still valid.
- If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid.
... *as long as* price falls back to $417.44 by EOW.
The point: ... idk. Ask me in 2 weeks.
Where is "top"?:
It's the price where the last bear goes long (aka covers). In other words when there is not a single buyer left.
[Note(s)]
** Starting with Homma Munehisa, (1755) The Fountain of Gold—The Three Monkey Record of Money.
to the more contemporary: Al Brooks, (2009) "Trading Price Action Trends"
.. and everyone in between.
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